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      위험도분석을 이용한 철도투자사업 경제성평가 적용방안 = Application of Risk Analysis for Economic Evaluation of Railroad Investments

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      https://www.riss.kr/link?id=A76245785

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      다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract) kakao i 다국어 번역

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      To account for uncertainties involved in an economic analysis of project, sensitivity analysis are usually being done in Korea. Though useful for policy analysis, but it lacks explicit consideration of probability of occurring certain events considered in the sensitivity analysis. Risk analysis otherwise can explicitly account for the probability of certain event which has dire impact on project viability, such as cost, discount rate, and size of benefit. This paper reports experience of applying risk analysis method for economic evaluation of railroad investment. Probability distribution of event has paramount impact on the risk analysis results, while not many prior researches dealt with these issues. Probability distribution of rolling stock cost and operating cost, in addition to those cost variables, are developed considering railway demand in this study. Case study results are reported. Issues in applying risk analysis are reported in addition to further research direction.
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      To account for uncertainties involved in an economic analysis of project, sensitivity analysis are usually being done in Korea. Though useful for policy analysis, but it lacks explicit consideration of probability of occurring certain events conside...

      To account for uncertainties involved in an economic analysis of project, sensitivity analysis are usually being done in Korea. Though useful for policy analysis, but it lacks explicit consideration of probability of occurring certain events considered in the sensitivity analysis. Risk analysis otherwise can explicitly account for the probability of certain event which has dire impact on project viability, such as cost, discount rate, and size of benefit. This paper reports experience of applying risk analysis method for economic evaluation of railroad investment. Probability distribution of event has paramount impact on the risk analysis results, while not many prior researches dealt with these issues. Probability distribution of rolling stock cost and operating cost, in addition to those cost variables, are developed considering railway demand in this study. Case study results are reported. Issues in applying risk analysis are reported in addition to further research direction.

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      목차 (Table of Contents)

      • Abstract
      • 1. 서론
      • 2. 기존연구 검토
      • 3. 위험도 분석의 개념과 사례연구
      • 4. 결론 및 향후연과제
      • Abstract
      • 1. 서론
      • 2. 기존연구 검토
      • 3. 위험도 분석의 개념과 사례연구
      • 4. 결론 및 향후연과제
      • 5. 감사의 글
      • 참고문헌
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