패권국 지위 변화와 동북아 질서 재편: 동북아 다자협력질서의 특징을 중심으로 = Multilateral Cooperative Order and Politics of Power Transition in Northeast Asia

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

As prospects for power transition from the United States and China are receiving more scholarly attention in academia and policy communities, this article examines how multilateral cooperative order in Northeast Asia may affect the politics of power transition in the forthcoming future. The article criticizes the notion of multilateral cooperation from neoliberal institutionalism and supplements it with a constructivist institutionalist perspective. The article argues that Northeast Asia has showcased proliferating culture of multilateral cooperative order by referring to multilateral mini-institutions in the region. As the data analysis informed by constructivist institutinalism elaborates, the region has progressed with a wide range of institutional arrangements that are target-oriented, task-specific and flexible. The article predicts that with the progressing multilateral cooperative order in Northeast Asia, the politics of power transition may be contained not to be conflictual. And the region may be insulated from the conflictual politics of power transition between the United States and China. In short, the article assess that the cooperative regional order may be able to be the most important factor determining the unfolding of Northeast Asia's future.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이 글은 패권과 부상, 그리고 다자협력이 동북아 질서를 설명하는 데 있어 어떠한 의미를 지니고 있는지 경험적 증거와 이론적 함의를 중심으로 논의한다. 본 논문은 다음의 두 가지 질문에 답하고자 한다. 첫째, 미국의 패권적 지위 변화와 중국의 급속한 부상이 파생하는 세력전이의 정치과정 속에 동북아의 다자협력질서는 어떠한 특성을 지니고 있는가? 동북아 다자협력질서는 유럽에 비해 제도화의 수준과 공식성에 있어 매우 빈약함에도 불구하고 이 지역의 다자협력질서의 현황과 유형 그리고 특성은 경험적으로 실증해야 할 문제일 것이다. 본 논문의 차별성은 다자주의의 공식성, 즉 제도의 확립에 대한 비판을 다자주의 개념의 재고찰을 통해 확립하고자 한다는 점에 있다. 다자주의협력은 제도의 공식화가 반드시 선행되어야 하는 협력형태가 아님을 구성주의적 제도주의의 틀을 이용하여 주장할 것이다. 둘째, 동북아 다자협력질서는 향후 미중 간 세력전이의 정치과정에 어떠한 영향을 줄 수 있을까? 구조현실주의적 관점에서 패권국의 하락과 신흥국의 부상이라는 국제정치의 구조적 변이과정은 지역의 안정적 질서 형성을 저해하고 분열과 분쟁을 초래하는 경향이 있다. 이는 세력전이 현상과정 중 지역의 자생적 질서는 패권국가의 지위 변화에 따라 상당한 영향을 받을 것으로 이해된다. 역사적으로 강대국 국제정치 속성의 변화에 가장 민감하게 반응했던 곳이 바로 동북아, 특히 한반도였음을 상기하면, 미중 간 ‘세력전이’의 국제정치는 현실적으로 중요한 문제가 아닐 수 없다. 따라서 동북아 다자협력질서가 세력전이 현상과정 속 동북아 지역안정도에 어떠한 함의가 있는지 논의하고자 한다.

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