북한체제 변화론 : 가능성과 제약성 논의를 중심으로 Focusing on the Changeability and the Change-Constraint = On the Change of North Korean Socialism

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

<Abstract>To prospect change of North Korean socialism, this paper reviews the existing debates for 'changeability' and 'change-constraint' in North Korean socialism.The arguments for 'changeability' rely on several aspects stemming from the 'dynamics of crisis,' 'modernization theory,' and the 'dynamics of passive response'. First of all, the ideology behind the 'dynamics of crisis' implies that a contingent crisis may result in the opportunity of change. Second, 'modernization theory' or 'socialist civil society theory' implies that economic development and growth of a civil society in socialist state lead to systemic changes including political reform. And the 'dynamics of passive response' indicate that passive approval of, and acquiescence to, change lead to the
implementation of that change without the necessary guidance and reforms from officials.On the other side, there are the arguments for the 'change-constraint,' otherwise known as 'institutional constraint'. The concept of 'institutional constraint' means that the existing development strategies or system principles constrain the fundamental change as an institutional force. Therefore, even the decision-making process of policies under crisis are determined by 'structured choice' rather than by 'free choice'. According to the above mentioned ideologies, the North Korean principles of 'Independent National
Economic Policy', the political 'Suryong system'(monolithic system), and the over riding ideology termed 'Juche Thought' constrain all radical change of the system.Although the alternation of basic system principles is constrained, in my opinion, the possibility of change in North Korean socialism is great amid the North's 'own' way of overcoming system crisis.