관광지 개발계획 수요추정 방법 고찰 및 평가 - 전국 27개 관광지 개발계획을 대상으로 - = The Evaluation of Existing Tourism Demand Projection Methods in Planned Twenty Seven Reports

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Tourism demand projections have been applied to a wide variety of reports of the field. This article examined the discrepancy between the actual and forecasted data to identify what factors contribute to precisely project tourists` demand, which eventually contribute to local areas, for their vacation destination. The number of samples collected is 27 reports and the results are as follows; First, it was confirmed that there were a variety of failures that could work out in each report by scrutinizing preconditions for demand projections, identifying the discrepancy between the actual and predicted data in 5 reports possible. Second, author observed if the reports collected had followed the steps suggested by Korea Development Institute(KDI). Even though the steps represented by Korea Development Institute could not be criterion for all reports, it is significant for the criterion of future demand projection in view of the fact that there is no criterion built by any other institute so far. Third, failures that frequently had been discovered in the reports were grouped by 5 common items. In future research a long-term studies like longitudinal research for reports published by a wide variety of institutesare expected from researchers, not short-term study.