“12시면 최종투표율을 알 수 있다!”: 선거 당일 시간대별 투표율 분석과 예측모델 = “We Can Already Predict the Voter Turnout as early as 12 Noon!”: An Analysis of the Voter Turnout on An Hourly Basis and Its Prediction Model

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study attempts to answer the academic question, “Is there any way to predict the voter turnout on an election day before the election ends?” To this end, this piece analyzes and compares the characteristics of voter participation on an hourly basis on election day among presidential, national assembly, and regional levels. Also, this research analyzes and compares the characteristics of voter participation on an hourly basis on election day between early voting elections and elections without early voting systems. Finally, this essay develops a prediction model for the voter turnout on an hourly basis on election day using a Bayesian model and evaluates the simulation results. Above all, this research finds that we can already predict the voter turnout with a high degree of confidence as early as 12 noon on election day. Rational voters tend to decide when to go to the polling booths to minimize costs.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이 논문은 “선거 당일 최종투표율을 사전에 정확하게 예측할 수 없을까?”라는 질문에 답하는 것이다. 이 논문은 우선 선거 당일 시간대별 투표율의 특징을 분석하고 서로 비교한다. 그 다음으로 사전투표제가 실시된 모든 선거의 시간대별 투표율의 특징을 분석하고 비교한다. 마지막으로 베이지안 모델을 활용하여 최종투표율은 물론, 특정 시간대의 투표율을 예측하는 시뮬레이션 결과를 제시하고 그 의의를 평가한다. 이 논문은 무엇보다도 이미 선거 당일 12시가 되면 최종투표율을 예측하는데 충분하다는 사실을 발견한다. 이러한 특징들은 한국 유권자들이 언제 투표장으로 가는지를 결정할 때 투표비용을 최소화하는 방향으로 합리적인 선택을 하기 때문에 형성된 것으로 보인다.

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