외국인 직접투자(FDI) 활성화를 위한 정책 시뮬레이션 = Analysing Factors Affecting FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) Using System Dynamics Approach

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper aims to identify crucial factors affecting FDI which is regarded as a driving force for economic development in a country, to forecast future values of dependent and mediating variables involved in FDI policy process using SD (System Dynamics) approach, and to put forward practical policy measures to reinforce FDI achievements. In doing so, we build causal diagram with loops, simulation model including mediating and dependent variables, and seven policy scenarios by which future conditions could be analyzed and forecast, and also we conduct sensitivity analysis to discover how sensitively each scenario fluctuates. Regarding analysis tool, we employ Powersim program which is a special purpose software program designed for system dynamics simulation. The analysis results predict what seven policy scenarios produce, especially with regard to the variables involved in FDI model and also they show how sensitively the policy scenarios respond to certain environmental change.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 통계청, "통계자료 포털"

2 오영민, "원자력발전소 조직 안전문화에 관한 시스템 사고적 고찰" 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 15 (15): 51-74, 2014

3 김동환, "시스템사고 : 시스템으로 생각하기" 선학사 2004

4 전유신, "시스템다이내믹스를 활용한 도시개발 밀도의 적정성 평가모델 구축연구" 4 (4): 71-94, 2003

5 오영민, "시스템 다이내믹스 기법을 활용한 고위험 조직 사고 사례 분석" 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 16 (16): 5-29, 2015

6 최남희, "시스템 다이내믹스 기법을 이용한 서울시 도시동태성 분석과 정책지렛대 탐색: 인과순환구조와 시스템 행태 분석을 중심으로" 한국행정학회 37 (37): 329-358, 2003

7 최남희, "새로운 지역개발전략으로서의 회복탄력성의 요소와 인과순환적 원형구조에 관한 연구" 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 16 (16): 155-178, 2015

8 최영출, "사회적기업의 지속가능성에 미치는 영향요인: QCA 방법의 적용" 한국비교정부학회 19 (19): 157-178, 2015

9 최영출, "사회적 기업 지원 활성화를 위한 주요 쟁점의 도출 - 전북, 광주, 전남지역의 지역언론 기사 내용을 중심으로-" 한국자치행정학회 29 (29): 1-20, 2015

10 최남희, "기술사업화 생태계의 동태성에 대한 전략적 진단" 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 17 (17): 145-173, 2016

11 오영민, "국가 에너지 R&D의 중장기 효과평가를 위한 인과지도 분석" 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 14 (14): 91-112, 2013

12 UNCTAD, "World Investment Report 2015" United Nations 2015

13 Mhlanga, N., "Understanding foreign direct investment in the Southern African Development Community: An analysis based on project-level data" 41 (41): 337-347, 2010

14 Lipsey, R., "The location and characteristics of US affiliates in Asia" NBER 1999

15 Torrisi, C., "The determinants of direct investment in a small LDC" 10 : 29-45, 1985

16 Chakrabarti, A., "The determinants of FDI: Sensitivity analyses of cross-country regressions" 54 : 89-113, 2001

17 Cleeve, E., "How effective are fiscal incentives to attract FDI to Sub-Saharan Africa?" 42 (42): 135-153, 2008

18 OECD., "FDI in Figures" OECD 2013

19 Asiedu, E., "FDI in Africa: The role of natural resource, market size, government policy, institutional and political instability" 29 (29): 63-77, 2006

20 Schneider, F., "Economic and Political Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment" 13 (13): 161-175, 1985

21 Ahamad, M., "Determinants of, and the Relationship between FDI and economic growth in Bangladesh" Shahjalal University of Science and Technology 2010

22 Nunnenkamp, P., "Determinants of FDI in developing countries: Has globalization changed the rules of the game?" 11 (11): 335-355, 2002

23 Vijayakumar, N., "Determinants of FDI in BRICS Countries" 5 (5): 1-13, 2010

24 Biswas, R., "Determinants of FDI" 6 (6): 492-504, 2002

25 Love, J., "Analyzing the determinants of US direct investment in Mexico" 32 : 1259-1267, 2000

26 Sankaran, C., "An analysis of the determinants of FDI inflows: The case of the Dominican Republic" 15 (15): 47-68, 2015

27 Sufian Eltayeb Mohamed, "ANOTHER LOOK AT THE DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN MENA COUNTRIES: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION" 경제연구소 35 (35): 75-90, 2010