Foreign exchange crisis in Latin American markets : comparison before and after with OECD countries

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper describes a macroeconomic analysis for some countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay, and Venezuela, between 1980 to 2015, when various financial and banking crisis had happened. After a comparison with OECD members that not suffered these problems, it is important to identify the causes and consequences of the exchange and banking crisis, before and after that it happened. Also, a review and contrast are performing to study the authorities' reactions at each of those moments. A simple method was followed based on three stages: First, was the search and review of chosen articles; then the study a numeric data gathering and reports to later lead at the final step: the execution of an analytical approach, supported on indicators of the economic behavior. In the end, a series of conclusions are listed that can help to rethink the strength and weaknesses sights that governments in North and South America - Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay, and Venezuela - might wish to have, each time that designing economic politics.

Keywords: Exchange Crisis, Foreign exchange reserves, Trade shocks, Banking shocks, Macroeconomic policies, Latin America, OECD.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 논문은 각종 금융 및 금융 위기가 발생한 1980-2015년의 아르헨티나, 브라질, 멕시코, 우루과이, 베네수엘라 등 일부 국가의 거시경제 분석을 설명한다. 이런 문제를 겪지 않은 OECD 회원국들과 비교한 뒤 외환위기의 원인과 결과를 파악하는 것이 중요하다. 또한, 검토와 대조를 통해 각 순간의 당국의 반응을 연구한다.
세 가지 단계를 바탕으로 간단한 방법이 뒤따른다: 첫째, 선택된 기사를 검색하고 검토한다. 둘째, 숫자 데이터 수집과 마지막 단계인 분석적 접근법 후 실행한다. 경제 행동 지표를 뒷받침하는 마지막 단계에서의 보고였다. 마지막으로, 경제 정책을 설계할 때마다, 북미와 남아메리카의 정부가 취하고자 하는 강점과 약점에 대해 다시 생각해보는데 도움이 될 수 있는 일련의 결론들이 열거된다.

키워드: 외환 위기, 외환 보유고, 무역 충격, 은행 충격, 거시 경제 정책, 중남

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract ………………………………………………………………………………… v
• 1. Introduction ........................................................... 1
• 1.1. Research Motivation ................................................. 1
• 1.2. Research Objectives ................................................. 2
• 1.3. Organization of the Research ........................................ 3
• 1.4. Scientific Method of Support the Work ............................... 3
• 1.5. Criterion and Incidents Selected .................................... 4
• 2. Context and Elements That Show Signs of a Foreign Exchange Crisis ........ 5
• 2.1. Capital Flow and Exchange Rate Systems …………………………………………7
• 2.2. Fiscal Policy ....................................................... 8
• 2.3. Monetary Policy ..................................................... 8
• 2.4. Financial Contagion ................................................. 9
• 3. Causes and Description of Each Incident ................................ 11
• 3.1. Latin America’s Financial Crisis ……………………………………………… 11
• 3.2. Mexican Peso Crisis or Tequila Effect (1994-95) .................... 16
• 3.3. Venezuelan Banking Crisis .......................................... 20
• 3.4. Argentinian Economic Crisis 2000-2002 .............................. 23
• 3.5. Brazilian Economic Crisis .......................................... 28
• 3.6. Uruguayan Economic Crisis .......................................... 30
• 4. Macroeconomy and Practices Involved on Each Incident .................... 35
• 4.1. Tequila Effect (1994) ……………………………………………………………… 35
• 4.2. Venezuelan Banking Crisis (1994) ................................... 36
• 4.3. Argentine Great Depression (1998-2002) ............................. 37
• 4.4. Samba Effect (1999) ................................................ 38
• 4.5. Uruguayan Crisis (2002) ............................................ 38
• 5. Policies Involved in The Incidents and Its Comparison with OECD Members . 40
• 5.1. OECD Background and Characteristics 40
• 5.2. Objectives and Principles .......................................... 40
• 5.3. Latin America and the OECD ......................................... 41
• 5.4. Economic Comparison: Latin America vs OECD ......................... 42
• 5.4.1. Mexico (1998-1998) ............................................. 43
• 5.4.2. Venezuela (1989-1999) .......................................... 46
• 5.4.3. Argentina (1996-2006) .......................................... 49
• 5.4.4. Brazil (1994-2004) ............................................. 51
• 5.4.5. Uruguay (1996-2006) ............................................ 54
• 6. Conclusion ............................................................ 58
• References ............................................................ 60
• Abstract (in Korean) ................................................... 63
• Acknowledgement ........................................................ 64