硏究開發計劃에 있어서 技術豫測技法 活用에 관한 硏究

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

As modern society has become complicated, uncertain variables which are concerned with technological forecasting for the research and development of enterprise are increasing. Accordingly idea-deciders in this field have to choose the most righteous and dangerous substitutional plans. As the function of technological forecasting in the research and development planning must be changed into quantitative or qualitative danger from existing uncertainty, it will help idea-deciders choose the utmost danger.
This research emphasizes the constant importance of technological forecasting without a scheme about research and development planning till now, which investigates and evaluates concrete technological forecasting methods for this, and comparison, the points at issue and likeness of various technological forecasting.
But these various methods are made under the background of developed countries, and so if these were applied to developing countries such as our nation, adequate correction and supplement would be needed.
Delphi and necessary methods of them are thought to be good even if they are characteristically used like that in our country.
The important problem is how to choose and use mixed forecasting methods adequately and effectively according to the character of object for research and development. Technological forecasting based on new efficient conception depends on new recognition of energy and the second law of heating dynamics.
Lastly though Delphi method is not universalized in our country, many research must be made in many fields; politics, economy, society culture and so forth to apply itself to our surroundings. Thus if it is done so, it may be thought excellent idea-deciding method not to be compared with any method in uncertainty and individuation times.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 목차
• 英文抄錄 = i
• I. 緖論 = 1
• 1. 硏究의 意義 = 1
• 2. 硏究의 目的 = 2
• 3. 硏究의 方法 및 範圍 = 3
• II. 技術豫測과 硏究開發 計劃의 一般的 考察 = 5
• 1. 技術豫測의 意義와 必要性 및 技術 平價 = 5
• 2. 硏究開發의 意義와 推進計劃 樹立 = 12
• 3. 硏究開發計劃에서의 技術豫測의 役割 = 16
• 4. 硏究開發計劃에서의 技術豫測의 限界 = 22
• III. 技術豫測 技法 = 25
• 1. 技術豫測 技法의 類型 = 25
• 2. 探究的 技法 = 28
• 3. 當爲的 技法 = 37
• 4. 其他 技術豫測의 技法 = 40
• IV. 諸豫測 技法의 比較評價와 適用 = 42
• 1. 豫測 技法의 評平價基準 및 長·短點 = 42
• 2. 技術豫測 技法의 選好度 = 47
• 3. 技術豫測 技法의 適用 및 問題點 = 51
• 4. 開發途上國에서의 技術豫測의 限界 = 57
• V. 硏究開發計劃을 위한 技術豫測 應用 = 59
• 1. 消費財 硏究開發計劃을 위한 技術豫測 應用 事例 = 59
• 2. 새로운 能率槪念에 依據한 技術豫測과 硏究開發 課題 = 62
• VI. 結論 = 79
• 參考文獻 = 82