은행의 가계대출 급증: 행태론적 원인 분석 = A Behavioral Approach to Explaining the Recent Surge in Korean Banks` Household Lending

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper shall investigate the causes of the recent surge in household lending in Korea by examining changes in financial companies` business environment and internal decision making processes. It shall also suggest measures for preventing this phenomenon in the future. The spike in household lending has taken place as commercial banks` core business areas move away from traditional functions and towards credit card services, SME lending, and residential mortgage lending, etc. Household lending has grown voraciously, making it highly likely that the infrastructure and managerial capacity for handling credit risk will not have kept pace. If residential property prices fall further and interest rate levels rise from the implementation of the exit strategy, household lending could act as a de-stabilizing factor for the broader economy. The recent spike in household lending in Korea may be described in terms of the following four causes. 1. Structural changes in funding demand : following the 1997 financial crisis, Korea`s corporate sector become more aware of the risks from financial structure vulnerabilities, and dis-intermediation in the form of lower reliance on banks for funding took place. Unable to generate growth and earnings from corporate and SME lending, banks turned their attention to household lending, such as residential mortgages. 2. Self-perpetuating nature of mortgage lending: as residential property prices rise, this expands loan limits based on the collateral from a given mortgage, which in turn spurs speculative demand. 3. Distortionary effects of Basel Ⅱ risk-weightings: The risk weights for loans as stipulated in Basel Ⅱ are far lower for mortgage loans than for corporate sector loans, which may also have spurred banks` rapid gravitation towards the latter. 4. Herding behavior resulting from collective intelligence: the surge in residential mortgage lending can be viewed as occurring when a large number of banks adopt a business model for self preservation, and then this spread throughout the entire banking sector. Following years of regulatory easing, the financial supervisory framework revolves around prudential supervision, with regulation of business conduct kept to a minimum. The result is that the global economy is left in an instable situation according to financial companies` strategies, such as raising mortgage lending, where funding flows can go back and forth in no time. Going forward, financial supervisory institutions should revamp their supervisory framework to be able to actively and preemptively manage the risks from financial companies` business conduct, which can act as a burden on the economy as a whole. This new financial supervisory framework should have simple rules, while in other matters, we will need to expand reliance on the discretionary judgment of financial supervisory bodies that have the requisite authority, capacity, and integrity.

참고문헌 (Reference)

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