Potential climate change effects on Great Lakes hydrodynamics and water quality

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CONTENTS
• Preface = ⅵ
• Contributors = ⅶ
• Chapter 1. Scope and Summary / by David C. L. Lam
• 1.1 Introduction = 1-1
• 1.2 Scope of the Report = 1-2
• 1.3 Summary of the Chapters = 1-3
• 1.4 Reference = 1-4
• Chapter 2. Climate and Lake Responses / by William M. Schertzer ; Thomas E. Croley Ⅱ
• 2.1 Introduction = 2-1
• 2.2 Great Lakes Physical Characteristics = 2-3
• 2.3 Climatic Measurement Networks = 2-6
• 2.3.1 Land observations = 2-6
• 2.3.2 Lake observations = 2-6
• 2.3.3 Over-lake meteorological fields = 2-7
• 2.4 Great Lakes Basin Climatic Characteristics = 2-8
• 2.4.1 Air mass circulation and storms = 2-8
• 2.4.2 Precipitation = 2-9
• 2.4.3 Air temperature = 2-11
• 2.4.4 Water temperature = 2-13
• 2.4.5 Winds = 2-15
• 2.4.6 Humidity vapor pressure and dew-point temperature = 2-20
• 2.4.7 Cloudiness and fog = 2-23
• 2.4.8 Ice cover = 2-24
• 2.5 Regional Climatological Modeling and Fluctuations = 2-25
• 2.5.1 Mesoscale investigations = 2-25
• 2.5.1.1 Lake and land breeze = 2-26
• 2.5.1.2 Lake effect snow storms = 2-26
• 2.5.1.3 Major storm events = 2-27
• 2.5.1.4 Cold front passage = 2-27
• 2.5.2 Lake heat budget and thermal responses = 2-28
• 2.5.2.1 Lake heat budget = 2-28
• 2.5.2.2 Climatic effect on large lake annual thermal cycle = 2-32
• 2.5.2.3 Climate (heating and wind) effect on thermal stratification = 2-33
• 2.5.2.4 Climate (wind) forced up-welling and down-welling events = 2-34
• 2.5.3 Lake levels and flows = 2-35
• 2.5.3.1 Great Lakes water balance = 2-35
• 2.5.3.2 Lake level fluctuation = 2-35
• 2.5.3.3 Connecting channel flows, diversions and flushing time = 2-36
• 2.5.4 Great Lakes hydrology and modeling = 2-37
• 2.5.4.1 Runoff modeling = 2-38
• 2.5.4.2 Precipitation = 2-39
• 2.5.4.3 Lake thermodynamics = 2-39
• 2.5.4.4 Great Lakes net basin supply = 2-41
• 2.5.4.5 Lake levels and flows = 2-44
• 2.6 Climate Change and Regional Scenarios = 2-44
• 2.6.1 Global climate simulations = 2-44
• 2.6.2 Global circulation models (GCM's) = 2-45
• 2.6.3 GCM limitations to regional-scale application = 2-45
• 2.6.4 Regional-scale climate scenarios = 2-47
• 2.7 Climate Change Impacts = 2-49
• 2.7.1 Lake responses to a warm year climate condition = 2-49
• 2.7.2 Response of Lake Ontario to steady-state GCM scenario = 2-50
• 2.7.3 Climate impacts on hydrology (steady-states／transient models) = 2-54
• 2.7.3.1 GLERL-EPA 2xCO₂ climate impacts = 2-54
• 2.7.3.2 GLERL-IJC 2xCO₂ climate impacts = 2-56
• 2.7.4 Great Lakes response to transposed climates = 2-57
• 2.7.4.1 Climate transposition scenarios = 2-57
• 2.7.4.2 Lake evaporation increases = 2-59
• 2.7.4.3 Soil moisture and runoff reductions = 2-59
• 2.7.4.4 Net basin supply decreases = 2-61
• 2.7.4.5 Net basin supply variability increases = 2-61
• 2.7.4.6 Reduced turnover frequency = 2-61
• 2.7.4.7 Lake effects = 2-62
• 2.7.4.8 Lake levels and outflows = 2-62
• 2.8 Potential Impacts of Global Climate Change on Lake Hydrothermal Dynamics in Other Climate Regimes = 2-62
• 2.8.1 Hypothetical lake responses to climate change = 2-63
• 2.8.2 Response of lakes in sensitive regions to climatic change = 2-64
• 2.9 Summary = 2-64
• 2.10 References = 2-66
• Chapter 3. Lake Thermodynamics / by Michael J. McCormick ; David C. L. Lam
• 3.1 Introduction = 3-1
• 3.2 Mixed Layer Models = 3-4
• 3.2.1 ML2.5 model = 3-6
• 3.2.2 RWG model = 3-7
• 3.2.3 RT model = 3-8
• 3.3 Model Comparisons and Performance = 3-9
• 3.4 Climate Change Inferences = 3-10
• 3.5 References = 3-13
• 3.6 Appendix - Basic Theory = 3-17
• Chapter 4. Large-scale Circulation / by Dmitry Beletsky ; Kwang K. Lee ; David J. Schwab
• 4.1 Introduction = 4-1
• 4.2 Annual Thermal Cycle = 4-3
• 4.3 Short-term Variability = 4-3
• 4.3.1 Storm surges seiches, upwelling, low-frequency waves, and eddies = 4-4
• 4.3.1.1 Storm surge = 4-4
• 4.3.1.2 Surface seiche = 4-5
• 4.3.1.3 Internal seiches and coastal upwelling = 4-6
• 4.3.1.4 Topographic wave = 4-8
• 4.3.1.5 Mesoscale eddies = 4-8
• 4.3.2 Lake-wide circulation modeling = 4-9
• 4.3.2.1 Dynamic height method = 4-9
• 4.3.2.2 Barotropic models = 4-10
• 4.3.2.3 Baroclinic models = 4-11
• 4.3.2.4 Model accuracy and predictability = 4-12
• 4.3.3 Coastal zone modeling = 4-13
• 4.3.3.1 Empirical models = 4-13
• 4.3.3.2 Fine resolution coastal zone models = 4-13
• 4.3.4 Great Lakes Forecasting System = 4-15
• 4.3.4.1 System design = 4-16
• 4.3.4.2 Coast Watch = 4-17
• 4.3.4.3 Numerical models = 4-18
• 4.3.4.4 Products = 4-18
• 4.3.4.5 Evaluation of results = 4-18
• 4.3.4.6 Plans = 4-20
• 4.4 Long-term Variability = 4-21
• 4.4.1 Observed summer, winter and annual circulation in the Great Lakes = 4-21
• 4.4.1.1 Summer circulation = 4-24
• 4.4.1.2 Winter circulation = 4-27
• 4.4.1.3 Annual circulation = 4-29
• 4.4.2 Lake-wide circulation modeling = 4-29
• 4.4.2.1 Barotropic models = 4-29
• 4.4.2.2 Early baroclinic models = 4-29
• 4.4.2.3 Modeling in the 1990's = 4-30
• 4.4.3 Impact of climate change on circulation = 4-31
• 4.5 Conclusions = 4-33
• 4.6 References = 4-34
• Chapter 5. Wind-Waves on Large Lakes / by Paul C. Liu
• 5.1 Introduction = 5-1
• 5.2 Physical and Statistical Description of Waves = 5-3
• 5.2.1 Conventional assumptions = 5-3
• 5.2.2 Wind waves on the Great Lakes = 5-4
• 5.2.3 Wave energy spectrum = 5-5
• 5.2.4 The probability structures of lake surface waves = 5-6
• 5.2.5 Orbital wave motion and components = 5-7
• 5.2.6 Wind waves and storm surges = 5-7
• 5.3 State-of-the-Art Modelling of Wind Waves = 5-8
• 5.3.1 Historical sketch of wave model developments = 5-8
• 5.3.2 Momentum balance equation and the Donelan／GLERL model = 5-9
• 5.3.3 Energy balance equation and the WAM model = 5-10
• 5.3.4 Model comparisons = 5-11
• 5.3.5 Shallow water modifications = 5-11
• 5.4 Climate Effects on Wind Waves = 5-13
• 5.5 Conclusions = 5-14
• 5.6 References = 5-15
• Chapter 6. Great Lakes Ice Cover / by Raymond A. Assel
• 6.1 Introduction = 6-1
• 6.2 Annual Ice Cycle = 6-2
• 6.2.1 Atmospheric and limnological influence on Great Lakes ice cover = 6-2
• 6.2.2 Seasonal progression of the ice cover = 6-4
• 6.2.2.1 The general pattern = 6-4
• 6.2.2.2 Autumn water cooling and the annual temperature cycle = 6-6
• 6.2.2.3 Ice formation and ice types = 6-7
• 6.2.2.4 Interannual variation of annual maximum ice cover = 6-8
• 6.2.2.5 Factors affecting the loss of ice cover in spring = 6-9
• 6.2.2.6 Lake superior ice formation and loss pattern = 6-9
• 6.2.2.7 Lake Michigan ice formation and loss pattern = 6-9
• 6.2.2.8 Lake Huron ice formation and loss pattern = 6-9
• 6.2.2.9 Lake Erie ice formation and loss pattern = 6-10
• 6.2.2.10 Lake Ontario ice formation and loss pattern = 6-10
• 6.2.3 Ice classification = 6-10
• 6.2.4 Ice thickness = 6-11
• 6.3 Ice Hazards = 6-12
• 6.3.1 Winter navigation = 6-12
• 6.3.2 Ice jams and shore installation = 6-12
• 6.4 Affects of Ice on the Lake Ecosystem = 6-13
• 6.4.1 Effects of changes in ice cover on the winter ecology of Lake Michigan = 6-13
• 6.4.2 Spring coastal plume in southern Lake Michigan = 6-14
• 6.5 Climatic Trends = 6-14
• 6.5.1 Nearshore ice cover regime = 6-14
• 6.5.2 Open lake ice cover regime = 6-15
• 6.6 Impact of Climate Change = 6-16
• 6.6.1 Lake ice cover regime for double carbon dioxide scenarios = 6-16
• 6.6.2 Bay and harbor freeze-up and break-up dates = 6-17
• 6.7 References = 6-18
• Chapter 7 Water Quality / by Joseph F. Atkinson ; Joseph V. De Pinto ; David C. L. Lam
• 7.1 Introduction = 7-1
• 7.2 General Considerations in Water Quality Modeling Pertaining to Large Lakes = 7-4
• 7.2.1 Parameters of interest = 7-4
• 7.2.2 Scale consideratons, model complexity = 7-6
• 7.3 Transport and Mixing Processes = 7-7
• 7.3.1 Wind and pressure effects, horizontal circulation = 7-8
• 7.3.2 Vertical mixing and stratification = 7-11
• 7.4 Internal Sources and Sinks = 7-15
• 7.4.1 Effects on biochemical processes = 7-15
• 7.5 Boundary Transport = 7-16
• 7.5.1 Air／water mass transfer = 7-16
• 7.5.2 Benthic sources = 7-18
• 7.6 External Loadings = 7-19
• 7.7 Lake Erie Water Quality model = 7-20
• 7.7.1 Heat flux - thermocline model = 7-20
• 7.7.2 Biochemical model = 7-21
• 7.7.3 Lake Erie simulation results = 7-23
• 7.7.4 Preliminary results of climate change effects on lower Great Lakes water quality = 7-24
• 7.8 Green Bay Mass Balance Model = 7-26
• 7.8.1 GBTOX as a management tool = 7-30
• 7.8.2 Potential impacts of climate change = 7-32
• 7.9 Conclusion = 7-33
• 7.10 References = 7-34