주식분할의 장기성과 = Long-term Performance of Stock Splits

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In this study, we investigated the market long-term performance of stock splits by using the Korean Stock Market data from 1998 through 2002. We measured the performance by the event-time portfolio approach with the buy-and-hold abnormal return (BHAR) and the cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR). Also, the calendar-time portfolio approach with one-factor and three factor model were used for avoiding the misspecification model problem.The first of main results in this study was that the stock splits had significantly positive abnormal returns around the month of the stock splits announcements. However, the period and CAAR after the announcement month were significantly negative. This negative long-term abnormal returns were confirmed by the calendar-time portfolio approach. The results suggested that the abnormal return followed by the stock splits seemed to be positive in the short-term period. Second, there was no the difference of the long term performance between the high and the low split ratios. The operating income performance in the periods followed by the stock splits announcements grew worse. Therefore, the signalling effects, the managers of the firm under considering the stock splits would make use of splits as a form of signals for the upward changes in the cash flow or profits, could not be found. Finally, in contrast to Fama, Fisher, Jensen and Roll (1969), the significant negative abnormal returns following the stock splits were still found irrespective of the change of dividend payout ratio.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구에서는 1998년부터 2002년 동안 주식분할을 실시한 과거 거래소 상장기업을 대상으로 장기성과를 분석하였다. 장기성과는 Event-time 포트폴리오 접근방식으로 측정되어지는 과 을 이용하였고 또한 Calendar-time 포트폴리오 접근방식으로 1요인 CAPM 모형과 3요인 모형을 이용하였다. 분석결과 주식분할의 공시월 부근에서 유의적인 양(+)의 초과수익률을 발견할 수 있었다. 이러한 결과는 기존 국내 연구들에서 밝혀진 바와 같이 주식분할의 공시효과가 존재한다는 것을 재확인 한 것이다. 하지만 이후 기간별 과 모두 유의적인 음(-)의 초과수익률이 나타났으며, 이러한 결과는 Calendar-time 포트폴리오 접근방식인 1요인 CAPM 모형과 3요인 모형에서도 재확인 할 수 있었다.분할비율에 따른 과 을 분석한 결과 분할비율이 높은 기업군도 주식분할 이후 여전히 음(-)의 초과수익률이 나타났으며 주식분할 이전 보다 이후에 영업성과가 더 악화되는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 주식분할이 기업의 수익성이 개선된다는 신호로 보기에는 무리가 있었다. 배당성향의 증감에 따라 표본을 분류하여 장기성과를 분석한 결과에서 두 표본 간에 뚜렷한 차이를 발견할 수 없었다.본 연구의 결과를 통하여 볼 때 주식분할은 한국 주식시장에서 단기적으로는 주가에 양(+)의 영향을 미치고 있지만 장기적으로는 주식분할이 주가에 미치는 영향은 없는 것으로 판단된다.

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