정권별 정책변화가 서울시 하위 주택시장 가격의 시공간적 전이를 유발하는가?: 파이썬에 기반한 수치해석 모델을 중심으로 = Does the Policy Change across Administrations Induce Spatio-Temporal Spillover Effect in Housing Prices of Submarkets in Seoul? : Focusing on A Python-Based Numerical Analysis Model

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study investigates how shifts in real estate policy orientations across presidential administrations have shaped the spatio-temporal transmission of apartment prices across Seoul’s 25 districts. Although the literature frequently discusses ripple and balloon effects, few studies have simultaneously examined dynamic inter-district transmission and changing regulatory environments using long-term empirical data. By utilizing 254 monthly observations from November 2003 to December 2024, combined with presidential term information, this study identifies how the diffusion pathways and structural characteristics of price shocks differ across administrations. A stepwise Python-based analytical framework was employed, integrating correlation network analysis, a VAR(Vector Autoregression) model, Granger causality tests, and IRFs(Impulse Response Functions). Statistically significant correlations were used to refine the VAR specification, after which Granger causality allowed the identification of originating and receiving districts. IRFs were then used to quantify the propagation intensity, transmission lags, and temporal decay patterns of shocks across space. The results show that price shocks consistently decayed over time across all administrations, yet their magnitude, spatial reach, and hubs of influence varied substantially with policy stance. Periods of strong regulation exhibited more pronounced hub-driven and multilayered diffusion—often involving districts such as Jung-gu and Yangcheon-gu—while deregulated periods showed weaker, slower, and less concentrated transmission. More recently, widening disparities among districts were observed despite overall stabilization in the aggregate index, indicating increasingly asymmetric local responses. Overall, the findings demonstrate that Seoul’s apartment submarkets operate as a complex, interconnected system whose spillover mechanisms evolve with regulatory policy, financial conditions, and broader macroeconomic changes. These results underscore the need for housing policy designs that move beyond uniform or average-effect approaches by explicitly considering dynamic spatial linkages and transmission pathways among submarkets.