미래예견적 국정관리지원: 생활인프라 수요-공급 예측 부문 모델링 연구

국문 초록 (Abstract)

□ 인구감소, 초 고령화, 저 성장, 과학기술 발전, 사회 양극화, 전염병 등 국내외 환경이 급격히
변화함에 따라 미래예견적 국정관리(Anticipatory governance)의 중요성이 강조되고 있음
○ 급변하는 환경에서 지금까지와 같은 현안 또는 단기적·단발성 미래에 대한 대응전략으로는
미래에 대한 불확실성을 극복할 수 없으므로, 중·장기적 미래 예측과 대응을 위한 제도화된
국정관리 노력이 필요함
○ 미래예견적 국정관리는 좁게는 선찰을 토대로 의사결정을 통해 문제를 사전 예방할 수 있는
조치(Preventive measure)를 찾는 활동을,
○ 넓게는 장기적 국가정책 수립을 위한 전략, 제도화·규범화·법제화된 공공행정 수행 방법,
불확실성과 다양한 미래상을 전제로 한 정책적 선택을 유도하는 새로운 의사결정 모델을 의미함
○ 특히 데이터기반 미래예견 시스템은 공유·협력형 정책수행 역량을 강화하고, 미래예측 및
정책대안의 선제발굴을 지원하며, 증거제시로 투명하고 수용성 높은 정책수행을 가능하게
한다는 점에서 미래예견적 국정관리를 위한 중요한 지원기반임
□ 본 연구에서는 다양한 국토정책 중 공급형평성과 운영효율성을 동시에 달성하기 위해 재원투자
과정에서 미래예견적 데이터기반 의사결정이 필요한 생활인프라 관련 정책과 계획 수립에 초점을 맞춤
○ 생활인프라의 공급 문제는 모든 국민이 편하게 시설을 이용할 수 있도록 시설 확충에 주안점을
둘 수 있으나, 지속가능한 운영의 관점에서는 수요-공급 예측 시나리오를 바탕으로 시설
신설 또는 폐쇄와 같은 의사결정이 요하는 복잡한 정책현안임
□ 본 연구의 목적은 메가트렌드를 바탕으로 생활인프라 수요와 공급의 변화를 전망하고, 데이터를
활용해 지역의 생활인프라 수요-공급 변화를 시뮬레이션할 수 있는 도구를 구현하는데 있음
○ 첫째, 메가트렌드와 생활인프라 관련 정책을 종합적으로 검토하여 미래사회에서 생활인프라에
대한 요구와 이용행태 등이 어떻게 변할지 전망함
○ 둘째, 데이터를 활용해 예측할 수 있는 생활인프라 수요-공급 변화를 모델링하고 지역의
변화에 대한 다양한 시나리오를 제공함
○ 셋째, 생활인프라 수요-공급 시뮬레이션 도구를 프로토타입으로 개발하여 향후 데이터기반
미래예견 시스템 구축의 단초를 마련함

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제1장 서론 ················································································································ 1
• 제1절 연구 배경 및 필요성 ················································································· 3
• 1. 미래예견적 국정관리 배경 ··········································· 3
• 2. 미래예견적 생활인프라 정책·계획 수립의 필요성 ····················· 6
• 가. 생활인프라 관련 정책 개요 ······································· 6
• 제2절 연구 목적 ··································································································· 8
• 제3절 연구 범위와 방법 ······················································································ 9
• 1. 연구 범위 ·························································· 9
• 가. 내용적 범위 ····················································· 9
• 2. 연구 방법 ························································ 11
• 3. 수행 체계 및 연구 흐름 ··········································· 12
• 제4절 연구 차별성 및 기대효과 ······································································· 13
• 1. 생활인프라 관련 선행연구와의 차별성 ······························ 13
• 가. 생활인프라 관련 주요 선행연구 현황 ··························· 13
• 나. 연구 차별성 ···················································· 13
• 2. 연구 기대효과 ···················································· 15
• 가. 정책적 기대효과 ················································ 15
• 나. 학술적 기대효과 ················································ 16
• 제2장 메가트렌드와 생활인프라 수요-공급 변화 영향요인 검토 ···················· 17
• 제1절 메가트렌드 전망 ······················································································· 19
• 제2절 생활인프라 개념 및 관련 정책 ··························································· 23
• 제3절 메가트렌드와 생활인프라 수요-공급 변화 영향 요인 검토 ··············· 30
• 제3장 국토 여건변화 대응을 위한 미래예견적 생활인프라 정책 수립 방향 ············· 33
• 제1절 장래인구 전망과 생활인프라 수요-공급 변화 예측 방안 ··················· 35
• 1. 인구 감소 시대의 생활인프라 계획 수립 방향 ······················· 35
• 2. 인구감소시대 대응을 위한 데이터기반 생활인프라 계획 수립 방안 ···· 39
• 제2절 미래 농촌 생활공간 변화와 생활인프라 수립 방안 ···························· 42
• 1. 농촌의 여건 변화와 미래 농촌 생활공간 전망 ······················· 42
• 가. 농촌 인구와 가구 변화 전망 ··································· 42
• 나. 농촌 산업·경제 구조 변화 ········································ 46
• 2. 농촌의 여건 변화에 따른 생활인프라 수요-공급 변화 전망과 계획 수립 방안···· 48
• 가. 수요 변화 전망 및 대응 방안 ···································· 48
• 나. 공급 변화 전망 및 대응 방안 ···································· 49
• 제3절 미래 1인가구 보편화와 생활인프라 정책 수립 방안 ·························· 52
• 1. 1인가구 보편화에 따른 여건 변화 ·································· 52
• 2. 1인가구 보편화에 따른 생활인프라 수요-공급 변화 전망과 정책 수립 방안 ····· 56
• 가. 수요 변화 전망 및 대응 방안 ···································· 56
• 나. 공급 방안 ······················································ 58
• 제4절 시사점 ······································································································ 60