북한외교정책연구의 국내외 경향의 분석과 대안의 모색 -분석수준의 다양화를 위한 소고- = Analysis of North Korean Foreign Policy -Current Research Trend and Alternatives-

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

It is not easy to see that analyses on North Korea are not mixed up with competing explanations because most approaches take almost monolithic stance; North Korea is bad. Foreign policy studies are usually confronted with conflicts of theories based on different levels of analysis that produce competing explanations for the same events. However, we found that most studies on North Korea depend on international level of analysis, thereby ignoring other levels of analysis that could generate many meaningful insights. In addition, most analyses belong to policy studies dealing mostly with nuclear issues for suggesting policy alternatives. The main reason might be due to the lack of reliable data for scientific analysis. It is also notable that very few analyses used North Korea``s first materials and documents as the source of arguments. This is especially true in case of analyses by western scholars. Here, we argue that domestic politics of North Korea is the clue to explain North Korea``s foreign policy. Domestic politics such as leadership change offers valuable explanations on the change of foreign policy like in Washington``s unilateral foreign policy or South Korea``s anti-American policy. Unfortunately, North Korea``s foreign policy has been wilderness to those approaches based on domestic sources of foreign policy.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 이종석, "현대북한의 이해" 서울: 역사비평사 1995

2 이병희, "한국과 미국의 대북정책: 배경과 전망" 한국국제정치학회 43 (43): 121-144, 2003

3 "정세현 전 장관의 학술발표" 연세대학교 사회과학연구소 2005년4월16일

4 이종국, "일본의 대북정책과 과제: 정상화와 핵 문제" 평화문제연구소 40 : 77-100, 2003

5 김봉호, "위대한 선군시대" 평양: 평양출판사 2004

6 채규철, "북핵문제의 전개 시나리오와 해결방향" 한국국제정치학회 44 (44): 143-167, 2004

7 임재형, "북한외교정책결정과정의 특징과 군의 역할: 김정일시대를 중심으로" 북한연구학회 6 (6): 37-64, 2002

8 윤태영, "북한 핵문제와 미국의 ‘강압외교’: 당근과 채찍접근을 중심으로" 한국국제정치학회 43 (43): 275-294, 2003

9 최용환, "북한 핵개발 전략과 그 지정학적 함의" 극동문제연구소 20 (20): 57-90, 2004

10 박건영, "부시 정부와 한반도:＂무엇을 할 것인가?＂" 극동문제연구소 17 (17): 137-161, 2001

11 고대원, "대북정책의 국내정치적 결정요인: 분석틀과 사례분석" 극동문제연구소 19 (19): 8-237, 2003

12 김연수, "냉전의 종식과 북한의 안보전략변화: 북·미관계에의 함의" 북한연구학회 7 (7): 129-154, 2003

13 정우곤, "김정일 정권의 국가발전전략: 강성대국을 중심으로" 극동문제연구소 20 (20): 35-66, 2004

14 이창헌, "김정일 시대 ‘선군정치’의 대외정책적 함의" 한국정치정보학회 9 (9): 285-303, 2006

15 "和田春樹，“遊擊隊國家の成立と展開" 1993년10월호

16 김정일, "“주체사상에 대하여" 1982년3월31일

17 "“북한의 대남 군사갈등행위의 심리적 요인 분석"" 41 (41): 2001

18 장달중, "“부시행정부의 패권전략과 동아시아의 안보딜레마"" 9 (9): 2003

19 이현경, "“부시행정부 출범 이후 남북북미관계와 답보경색관계 해법"" 14 (14): 2002

20 "“로동신문 분석을 통한 북한정치 변화 연구 1945-1950"" 7 (7): 2003

21 노정호, "“대북화해협력정책과 북한의 변화에 대한 실증적 분석"" 18 (18): 2002

22 이항동, "“대북포용정책에 대한 북한의 반응: 1997-1999, 로동신문 논평을 중심으로"" 34 (34): 2000

23 오일환, "“김정일시대 북한의 군사화경향에 관한 연구"" 41 (41): 2001

24 백인학, "“김정일 정권의 ‘신북방삼각관계’ 분석: 로동신문의 내용을 중심으로,”" 5 (5): 2001

25 백성호, "“김일성 사후 북한 외교노선의 변화와 대외관계의 특징"" 45 (45): 2005

26 김근식, "“김대중 정부의 햇볕정책:회고와 전망"" 18 (18): 2002

27 Horowitz, "“Who’s Behind That Curtain? Unveiling Potential Leverage over Pyongyang,”" 28 (28): 2005

28 Wu, "“What China Whispers to North Korea,”" 28 (28): 2005

29 Harnisch, "“U.S.-North Korean relations under the Bush Administration,”" 42 (42): 2002December

30 O'Hanlon, "“Towards Grand Bargain with North Korea,”" 26 (26): 2003

31 Harrison, "“Time to Leave Korea?”" 80 (80): 2001April

32 Hassing, "“The Twin Peaks of Pyongyang,”" 50 (50): 2006

33 Cha, "“The Debate over North Korea,”" 119 (119): 2004

34 Kang, "“The Avoidable Crisis in North Korea,”" 47 (47): 2003

35 Dueck, "“Strategies for Managing Rogue States,”" 50 (50): 2006

36 Snyder, "“South Korea’s Squeeze Play,”" 28 (28): 2005

37 Austen-Smith, "“Social Choice Theory, Game Theory, and Positive Political Theory,”" 1998

38 Hale, "“Real Reform in North Korea,”" 45 (45): 2005December

39 Lankov, "“Pyongyang: rules of engagement,”" 16 (16): 2003December

40 Cha, "“North Korea’s Weapons of Mass Destruction: Badges, Shields, or Swords?”" 117 (117): 2002

41 Tai, "“North Korea’s Path to Reform and Peace,”" 2006April

42 Coe, "“North Korea’s New Cash Crop,”" 28 (28): 2005

43 Lee, "“North Korean missiles: Strategic Implications and Policy Responses,”" 14 (14): 2001March

44 Levite, "“Never Say Never Again,”" 27 (27): 2002.03

45 No, "“Models of International Relations and Foreign Policy" 1989

46 Rozman, "“Japan’s North Korea Initiative and U.S.-Japanese Relations,”" 47 (47): 2003

47 Manosevitz, "“Japan and South Korea: Security Relations Reach Adolescence,”" 43 (43): 2003October

48 "“International Relations Theory and the Second Korean War,”" 47 (47): 2003

49 Park, "“Inside Multilateralism: The Six-Party Talks,”" 28 (28): 2005

50 Laney, "“How to Deal With North Korea,＂" 82 (82): 2003April

51 Brooks, "“Hard times for soft balancing, ”" 30 (30): 2005

52 Cha, "“Engaging North Korea Credibly,”" 42 (42): 2000

53 Koh, "“Dynamics of Inter-Korean Conflict and North Korea's Recent Policy Changes: An Inter-Systemic View,＂" 44 (44): 2004June

54 Scobell, "“Crouching Korea, hidden China,”" 42 (42): 2002April

55 Gurtov, "“Common security in North Korea,”" 42 (42): 2002June

56 Images, "“Commentaries on Part III ” in Stanley A The Political Psychology of The Gulf War and the Process of Conflict University of Pittsburgh Press" 1993

57 전봉근, "“2003년위기설 전망과 한미북 삼각관계,”" 18 (18): 2002

58 http://dialogue.unikorea.go.kr/, "http://dialogue.unikorea.go.kr/" 2007

59 Jervis, "and the Study of International Conflict ？ a paper presented at the Dean？s symposium at the University of Chicago" 1989

60 Schelling, "The Strategy of Conflict reprinted in 1994" Harvard University Press 1960

61 "The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution Statecraft and the Prospect of Armageddon" Cornell University Press 1989

62 null, "The Logic of Images in International Relations" Princeton University Press 1970

63 Snyder, "The Ideology of The Offensive Military Decision Making and the Disasters of 1914" Cornell University Press 1984

64 "System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life" Princeton: Princeton University Press 1997

65 Mesquita, "Principles of International Politics: People’s Power, Preferences, and Perceptions, 2nd edition" Washington, D.C.: CQ Press 2003

66 "Perception and misperception in international politics" Princeton Princeton University Press 1976

67 Kim, "North Korean Foreign Relations: In the post-cold war era" New York: Oxford university press 1998

68 Park, "North Korea: The Politics of Unconventional Wisdom" London: Lynne Rienner Publishers 2002

69 Koh, "North Korea and the World: Explaining Pyongyang's Foreign Policy" Seoul: Kyungnam University Press 2004

70 "International Herald Tribune" May312005

71 Ikenberry, "American Foreign Policy: Theoretical Essays, 5th edition" New York: Pearson Longman 2005

72 김성주, "6·15 남북정상회담이후 남북한관계와 한반도평화체제 구축의 전제" 한국국제정치학회 42 (42): 205-223, 2002

73 이수석, "2차 북핵위기에서 나타난 북한과 미국의 협상전략" 북한연구학회 7 (7): 79-98, 2003

74 이성봉, "1960년대 북한의 국방력 강화 노선과 정치체제의 변화" 한국국제정치학회 44 (44): 189-209, 2004

75 김용현, "1950년대 북한사회 군사화의 내용과 성격" 북한연구학회 6 (6): 185-208, 2002