북한 국지도발의 성향분석과 동맹협력 = The Trend of North Korean Local Military Provocations and Alliance Cooperation

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper provides a quantitative analysis regarding the trend of North Korean local military provocations and proposes ways to promote alliance cooperation with the US for the purpose of detering North Korean provocation. The outcomes of the analysis offer that the number of provocations is negatively related to the economic conditions of North Korea(NK) and the timing of nuclear crisis but positively associated with a nuclear development. NK has utilized local military provocations to outwardly divert its domestic discontent caused by poor economic condition and regime instability. During nuclear crises, NK seemed to control the level of escalation so as not to face military confrontation with the US. Signing the ‘Combined Counter-Provocation Plan’ between ROK-US is an important step towards ensuring continuous deterrence of NK. In order to promote a concrete cooperation, I suggest that the ROK-US should establish an organization for implementing this plan.