인공지능(AI)의 경제적 영향과 향후 정책방향에 대한 시사점: 조세 및 사회보장제도를 중심으로 = Economic Impact of AI and the Implications on Future Policy Direction

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

[Purpose]The purpose of this study is to examine the economic impact of AI technology and to discuss how to cope with it by using taxation and social security.
[Methodology]This study is based on the prediction of coming future, so it requires profound insight. For this reason, authors draw policy implications by looking into various recent research of prominent scholars in related fields.
[Findings]The most essential impacts of AI on national economy are economic growth based on productivity improvement, increase of unemployment due to automation, and exacerbation of income inequality. As counter-policies, wage subsidies including EITC, job security policies, and universal basic income can be considered. They have advantages and limitations, hence policy makers should bear their characteristics in mind.
[Implications]Related with AI technology advancement, it is important to make up for its negative impact on the economy by policies both for job security and for redistribution. Because of fulfillment that jobs provide, it is better to consider job security policies rather than simple income support first. Especially, the three counter-policies explained above require substantial source of revenue, therefore, it is necessary to scrutinize fiscal space when design policies.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

[연구목적]본 연구는 제4차 산업혁명의 핵심 분야 중 하나인 인공지능 기술의 발전이 국민경제에 어떠한 영향을 가져올 것이며, 이때 부정적인 영향은 최소화하고 긍정적인 영향을 확대하기 위한 조세 및 사회보장제도의 정책방향은 무엇인지에 대하여 논한다.
[연구방법]본 연구의 주제는 다가올 미래에 대한 예측을 기반으로 하기에 관련 분야에 대한 통찰력이 필요하다. 이를 위해 자자들은 해당 분야의 대표적인 연구자들이 최근 분석한 다양한 선행연구 결과들을 집중적으로 검토하고, 이를 종합하여 시사점을 도출하였다.
[연구결과]인공지능이 가져올 가장 핵심적인 경제적 영향은 생산성 향상을 기반으로 한 경제성장, 자동화의 노동 대체로 인한 고용악화, 저숙련자의 상대적 임금 하락으로 소득불평등 심화로 요약된다. 이에 대응하는 정부정책으로 EITC를 비롯한 임금 보조금이나 일자리 보장제도는 고용 안정성을 높여 저소득자의 삶의 질을 개선한다. 보편적 기본소득의 경우, 대량 실업 상황에 대응하는 수단이 되나 구직 유인을 제공하기에는 한계가 있다.
[연구의 시사점]인공지능의 기술과 관련하여 국민경제 측면에서는 고용과 소득재분배에 대한 정책적 보완이 중요하다. 또한, 직업이 주는 성취감 등을 감안할 때 단순 소득지원정책보다는 취업에 대한 유인이 있는 정책이 우선적으로 고려되어야 할 것이다. 특히 관련 정책들은 상당한 재원을 필요로 하기 때문에 재정 여력을 면밀히 검토하여 제도설계를 해야 한다.

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