우리나라의 수출에 미치는 환율의 영향력: 구조변화의 가능성을 중심으로 = The Impact of Exchange Rates on the Korean Exports: Focusing the Possibility of Structural Changes

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper estimates the Korean export functions (bilateral and total) and examines the impact of exchange rates on export volumes using quarterly data from 1992Q1 to 2009Q4. The empirical results indicate that the estimated values of the income elasticity are consistently positive and have changed little across partner countries and different time periods. In contrast, the estimated values of the price elasticity, which show the impacts of exchange rates, have different signs and sizes depending on trade partners and time periods. In all export functions, the price elasticity turns out to have declined since the 1997 financial crisis but to have risen back since the 2008 financial crisis, implying structural breaks in the impact of exchange rates. In addition, the Hansen (1991) stability test indicates that the total export function and two bilateral export functions (the exports to the US and the exports to Japan) are stable between the two crisis periods. On the contrary, the export function to China is not stable regardless of time periods. Besides, the price elasticity in the export function to China is estimated to be negative while it is estimated to be positive in other functions.

참고문헌 (Reference)

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