로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 수관화확산확률식의 개발 = Development of Crown Fire Propagation Probability Equation Using Logistic Regression Model

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Crown fire, the main propagation type of large forest fire, has caused extreme damage with the fast spread rate and the high flame intensity. In this paper, we developed the probability equation to predict the crown fires using the spatial features of topography, fuel and weather in damaged area by crown fire. Eighteen variables were collected and then classified by burn severity utilizing geographic information system and remote sensing. Crown fire ratio and logistic regression model were used to select related variables and to estimate the weights for the classes of each variables. As a results, elevation, forest type, elevation relief ratio, folded aspect, plan curvature and solar insolation were related to the crown fire propagation. The crown fire propagation probability equation may can be applied to the priority setting of fuel treatment and suppression resources allocation for forest fire.

참고문헌 (Reference)

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