都市計劃을 위한 人口推定模型 定立에 관한 考察 : 光州廣域市를 중심으로 = (A) Study on setting up a population estimation model for city planning

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study has been carried out for the purpose of giving basic data and suggestive issues to making policies for city development by setting up an multiple regression equation for estimating city population which necessarily precede city development or shaping policies. Furthermore, it is going to suggest a practical model of estimating population which is helpful to pre-estimate the patterns of growth of cities. The result is like the following ;
First, an equation for population estimation model made based on the result of multiple regression analysis and population as a subordinate variable is the following;
Y = a + bX_(1) +cX6 +dX_(12) +eX_(8)
Y = 2.64660-1.06609X_(1)-0.30547X_(6)+0.15128X_(12)+1.24854X_(8)
Y = 2.6466-1.0661*works-0.3055*culta+0.1513*publi+1.2485*commu
X_(1) = workers in industry/economy/enterprise (works)
X_(6) = cultural/sports facilities (culta)
X_(12) = government and public offices (publi)
X_(8) = Communication facilities/number of telephone fixture (commu)
Second, suitability degree of multiple regression equation is 0.94649 and 94.65% out of used cases showed appropriate to the regression curve. The setting-up of the regression equation itself by use of F value also showed significant meaning in statistics.
Third, it became clear that variables of communication facilities and works in enterprise are deeply related to subordinate variable in the level of 90% by T-test. The most effective variable to the growth of population was communication/telephone fixture(3.681) and works(12.431), public offices(l.986), and culture(-1.714) were in order.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 목차 = ⅰ
• TABLE LIST = ⅲ
• FIGURE LIST = ⅳ
• ABSTRACT = ⅴ
• Ⅰ. 序論 = 1
• A. 硏究의 目的 = 1
• B. 硏究의 範圍 및 方法 = 3
• Ⅱ. 成長模型의 定立을 위한 理論的 考察 = 4
• A. 都市成長에 관한 基礎 理論 = 4
• 1. 都市成長의 意味 = 4
• 2. 都市成長의 段階 = 7
• 3. 都市成長과 人口移動의 要因 = 10
• B. 都市計劃의 槪念과 計劃作成方法 = 12
• 1. 計劃作成(Plan formulation)의 方法 = 12
• 2. 시뮬레이션(Simulation)과 모델(Model) = 13
• 3. 人口推定을 위한 社會經濟指標 豫測模型 = 15
• Ⅲ. 市級以上 都市現況과 變數選定 = 18
• A. 光州市 都市計劃의 槪要 = 18
• 1. 1930年代 都市計劃 = 18
• 2. 1960年代 光州都市計劃 = 18
• 3. 1970年代 光州都市計劃 = 19
• 4. 1980年代 光州都市計劃 = 19
• 5. 1990年代 光州都市計劃 = 22
• B. 光州廣域市 人口의 變化 및 展望 = 22
• Ⅳ. 變數의 選定 및 都市成長模型의 定立 = 28
• A. 分析을 위한 變數 選定 = 28
• 1. 模型 定立을 위한 獨立變數 = 29
• 2. 模型 定立을 위한 獨立變數 = 29
• B. 模型定立을 위한 分析方法 = 34
• C. 結果 分析 및 모델 定立 = 36
• 1. 相關性 適合度와 F값을 利用한 假說檢證 = 36
• 2. 多重回歸方程式과 t값 假說檢證 = 38
• 3. 剩餘變差(residual)와 要約테이블 = 39
• 4. 히스토그램(histogram)과 定規分布確率圖表 (plot) = 40
• V. 結論 = 42
• 參考文獻 = 43