정당 이합집산의 조건: 열린우리당의 변화(2003-2007) = Conditions of Party Merger and Split: Change of the Uri Party(2003-2007)

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study analyzes organizational conditions in which a party could choose merger and split. The formation and change of the Uri Party came from the 'spontaneous' and 'step by step’ defections of incumbents, which was different from the previous ruling parties. Why did they dissolve and which conditions make it possible?
Based on these questions, this study sees it as the outcome of two dimensions: organizational characteristics and assessment of party resources. For a party with weak relations to members, the negative prediction on electoral result enhances the probability to choose merger and split. As a case, the Uri Party was organized as notable with high electoral winning probability in the level of 'party in the central office’, which led to the failure to make the momentum of formation of strong dominant coalition. Furthermore, the division of two organizations, 'party on the ground’ and 'party in public office’, and the reduction of central party’s function make the organization of cartel party in the middle of frequent shifts in leadership. In addition, negative electoral prediction worked to negative valuation on efficiencies of party resources. As a result, their alternative was the search for substitutability of available resources, which was defection, split and merger again.
The implication of this study is the emphasis on function and representation of party. The evolution of cartel party heightens the probabilities of organizational shifts and makes it a pattern of politics without voter’ realignment or changes of issues. Thus, this study argues that we should look out party merger and split because it would be constrain for the long term of Korean politics development.

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