기후변화에 따른 충북 지역 노동-임금 변동성 추정 = Estimation of Labor-Wage Variability under Climate Change : A Case Study of Chungbuk Region, South Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study quantitatively analyzes the impact of climate change on labor capacity and economic loss across industrial sectors in Chungbuk (Chungcheongbuk-do), South Korea. Wet-bulb globe temperatures were estimated using SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and work ability and labor loss were derived through exposure–response functions stratified by work intensity. These values were then integrated with sector-specific employment and wage data to project future changes in total monthly wages under different climate conditions. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, work capacity for high-intensity occupations may decline by over 40% by the end of the century, with pronounced labor loss and climate vulnerability in industrially concentrated areas (e.g., Cheongju, Jincheon, and Eumseong). Total wage output is projected to increase overall, reflecting structural factors such as rising labor scarcity and wage inflation. This study provides empirical evidence of labor market restructuring processes under climate stress, affording a scientific basis for climate-adaptive industrial and labor policy development at the regional level in South Korea.