고령화가 지역 경제 요인에 미치는 영향 비교 = The Impact of Aging on Factors of Regional Economy in Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Population aging is a currently highly relevant subject of debate, with arguments ranging from economic pessimism to optimism. This study aimed to analyze whether the economic impact of population aging has shifted over time. It employs a structural equation model to analyze panel data from 2007 to 2020 in 16 metropolitan regions in South Korea, separating the effects of population aging into capital deepening and labor productivity. The breakpoint is 2015, which is considered to reflect relevant technological and industrial changes regarding the topic of the study. There was a clear shift: the overall economic impact of population aging changed from negative before 2015 to positive after this year, primarily owing to a reversal in labor productivity from negative to strongly positive. While the effects of population aging on capital deepening remained positive, they exhibited diminishing returns. These findings challenge the notion that population aging inevitably leads to a decline in capital deepening and labor productivity, suggesting the possibility of effective adaptations through technology implementation and the use of older workers' experience. Policies should focus less on increasing the labor supply and more on boosting workforce productivity via knowledge-based transformation, such as through developing tailored regional strategies that reflect local industrial strengths.