동학개미운동에 대한 이론경제학적 분석 = Economic Analysis of Donghak Ants Movement

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 코로나 팬데믹 이후 주식시장에서 발생했던 ‘동학개미운동’ 현상에 대한 이론경제학적 분석을 시도하였다. Morris & Shin(1998)의 글로벌게임(global game)모형을 응용하여 본 연구의 분석모형을 수립하였고 도출된 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 주식시장에서의 투기적 행위가 발생하는 특정 구간이 존재한다는 것을 보임으로써 동학개미운동의 성립 가능성을 이론적으로 확인하였다. 둘째, 과거로부터 형성되어 온 주식시장의 내러티브가 현재 주식가격에 영향을 미치고 있으며 그 영향에 의해 실물경기흐름과 무관한 주가상승이 발생할 수 있음을 보였다. 셋째, 이자율과 신용매수비용이 낮으면 주가가 상승한다. 마지막으로 이자율 및 신용조달비용을 높임으로써 투기적 행위가 발생하는 구간을 감소시킬 수 있다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study analyzes ‘Donghak Ants Movement’ after Covid-19 pandemic. In the present study, building upon the seminal work by Morris and Shin (1998), we set up a theoretical framework to investigate the phenomenon which has been spreading in South Korean stock market called ‘Donghak Ants Movement’. The result proves that there exists a region where there is a speculative investment. Second, narrative has an important role in driving stock market price up regardless of a stagnant real business cycle. Third, an increase in stock prices can be explained by a low interest rate or a high leveraged buyout.

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