코호트 요인법을 이용한 시군구별 장래인구추계 = Population Projections for Small Areas in Korea Based on the Cohort Component Method

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Population projections are used for a wide variety of planning purposes such as new business applications and government projects. Furthermore, the demand for demographic data in small area has grown enormously in recent years. This study aims at forecasting population by small areas to meet such demands and to investigate future demographic change using well-known cohort-component method in which births, deaths and migration are projected separately for each age/sex cohort in population. The assumptions for the components (fertility, mortality and net migration) of population change are basically referred the scenario of regional projections carried out in 2005 by the KNSO. Results reveal the population of some cities tends to increase gradually from 2005 to 2030, while the population is expected to be lower in 2030 compared to that in 2005 in 167 areas respectively. Accordingly, population concentration toward cities will be pronounced in 2030.

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