수요-공급의 동시모형을 통한 공로 화물운송특성분석 = The Analysis of the Road Freight Transportation using the Simultaneous Demand-Supply Model

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study represents a first attempt in Korea to develop the simultaneous freight supply-demand model which considers the relationship between freight supply and demand. As the existing study was limited in one area, or the supply and the demand was separated and assumed not to affect each other, this study take it into consideration the fact that the demand affects supply and simultaneously vice versa. This approach allows us to diagnose a policy carried on and helps us to make a resonable alternative for the effectiveness of freight transportation system. To find a relationship between them, we use a method of econometrics. a structural equation theory and two stage least-squares(2SLS) estimation technique, to get rid of bias which involves two successive applications of OLS. Based on the domestic freight data, this study consider as explanatory variables a number of population(P), industry(IN), the amount of production of the mining and manufacturing industries(MMI), the rate of the effectiveness of freight capacity(LE) and the distance of an empty carriage operation(VC). This study describes well the simultaneous process of freight supply-demand system in that the increase of VC from the decrease of VC raises the cargo capacity and cargo capacity also augments VC. By the way. it is analyzed that the increment of VC due to the increase of the cargo capacity is larger than the reduction of VC owing to the increase of the quantify of goods. Therefore an alternative policy is needed in a short and long run point of view. That is to say, to promote the effectiveness of the freight transportation system, a short term supply control and a long run logistic infrastructure are urgent based on the restoration of market economy by successive deregulation. So we are able to conclude that gradual deregulation is more desirable to build effective freight market.