Risk Allocation in Vietnam's Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Transport Infrastructure Projects: A Comparative Analysis Before and After The 2020 PPP Law = 베트남 교통 인프라 공공-민간협력(PPP) 사업의 위험 분담: 2020년 PPP법 제정 전후 비교분석

국문 초록 (Abstract)

지난 수십 년간 베트남은 교통 인프라 개발을 가속화하기 위해 민관협력사업(PPP: Public-Private Partnership)에 크게 의존해 왔습니다. 그러나 기존의 BOT(Build-Operate-Transfer) 방식으로 추진된 초기 PPP 프로젝트들은 위험 분담 구조의 불명확성, 제도적 불확실성, 법적 구속력 부족 등으로 인해 비용 초과, 지연, 재정적 실패를 초래하였습니다. 이러한 문제를 해결하고자 베트남 정부는 2020년 「민관협력법(PPP법)」을 제정하여 PPP에 대한 통합적인 법적 틀을 마련하고, 지속 가능한 민간 투자를 유도하고자 하였습니다.
본 연구는 2020년 PPP법 제정 전후 베트남 교통 PPP 프로젝트의 위험 분담 방식이 어떻게 변화하였는지를 분석합니다. 이를 위해 법 제정 이전 사례로 푸미 대교와 하노이–하이퐁 고속도로, 제정 이후 또는 과도기적 사례로 중르엉–미투언 고속도로와 동당–짜린 고속도로 등 총 4개 프로젝트를 선정하여 사례연구를 수행하였습니다. 분석틀로는 세계은행의 PPP 위험 분담 매트릭스를 활용하여, 각 프로젝트에서 토지 수용, 시공, 수요(수익), 재정, 정책, 종료 등 핵심 위험 요소들이 어떻게 계약상 배분되었고 실무적으로 실행되었는지를 비교 분석하였습니다.
연구 결과, 2020년 이전 베트남 PPP는 과도하게 민간 부문에 위험을 전가하였으며, 국가의 이행 부족 및 불확실한 정책 환경으로 인해 많은 프로젝트가 실패하거나 지연되었습니다. 반면, 2020년 PPP법은 수익 공유 조항, 토지 수용 절차, 정부 재정지원(VGF) 등 제도적 개선을 통해 위험 분담 구조를 보다 명확히 하였으며, 동당–짜린 사례와 같은 최근 PPP에서는 보다 안정적인 사업 운영이 가능해졌습니다. 다만 분쟁 해결 절차, 불가항력 상황에 대한 보상 기준, 계약 변경의 경직성 등 일부 제도적 과제는 여전히 남아 있습니다.
본 연구는 베트남 PPP제도의 변화 과정을 실증적으로 고찰함으로써, 향후 교통 PPP사업의 정책 설계와 법제 개선을 위한 실용적 시사점을 제공합니다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Vietnam’s rapid infrastructure development over the past two decades has increasingly relied on Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs), particularly in the transport sector. However, early PPP projects often structured under ad hoc Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) frameworks, suffered from unclear risk allocation, regulatory uncertainty, and limited legal enforceability, leading to cost overruns, delays, and financial distress. In response to these challenges, the Vietnamese government introduced the 2020 Law on Public-Private Partnerships to establish a unified legal foundation for PPPs, aiming to attract sustainable investment and improve project governance.
This study investigates how risk allocation in Vietnam’s transport PPP projects has evolved before and after the introduction of the 2020 PPP Law. It employs a qualitative case study approach, analyzing four expressway projects: two pre-law cases (Phu My Bridge and Hanoi - Haiphong Expressway) and two post-law or transitional projects (Trung Luong - My Thuan and Dong Dang-Tra Linh Expressways). The World Bank’s PPP Risk Allocation Matrix is used as the analytical framework to assess how risks across land acquisition, construction, demand, financing, regulatory, and termination categories, were contractually and practically allocated in each case.
The findings reveal that prior to 2020, Vietnam’s PPP model heavily shifted risks to private investors, often without corresponding control or compensation mechanisms, resulting in financial failures and stalled projects. The 2020 PPP Law marks a significant institutional shift, introducing formal revenue-sharing provisions, clearer land acquisition procedures, and more predictable state contributions through viability gap funding. However, implementation challenges persist, particularly in dispute resolution, force majeure compensation, and the rigidity of contract amendment rules.
By comparing actual project outcomes and risk management practices across different legal regimes, this thesis concludes that the 2020 PPP Law is a critical but partial step toward more balanced and bankable PPPs. The study offers practical insights into improving future transport PPPs in Vietnam, emphasizing the importance of institutional capacity, legal clarity, and enforceable risk-sharing mechanisms.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract
• List of Figures
• List of Tables
• List of Abbreviations
• I. Introduction 1
• 1. PPP investment in Vietnam 1
• 2. PPP investment in transport infrastructure in Vietnam 2
• 3. Problem statement 4
• 4. Research question 6
• II. Literature Review 8
• 1. Concept of PPPs 8
• 2. Risk allocation framework in infrastructure PPPs 12
• 3. Risk allocation in transport PPP projects 14
• 4. Key risk factors in Vietnam transport PPP projects 15
• 5. International challenges and lessons 17
• 6. Research gap 19
• III. Legal and institutional context of PPPs in Vietnam 22
• 1. Evolution of PPP framework in Vietnam 22
• 2. Enactment of the 2020 PPP Law and key innovations 26
• 3. Institutional and policy implications 28
• IV. Research methodology 28
• 1. Research design 28
• 2. Case selection criteria 30
• 3. Data sources 31
• 4. Analytical framework: PPP Risk Allocation Matrix for Road (Global Infrastructure Hub and World Bank) 33
• 4.1 Overview of the matrix 33
• 4.2 Key risks and recommended allocation mechanism 36
• V. Results and analysis 37
• 1. Pre-2020 PPP Law cases 37
• 1.1 Phu My Bridge (2009) 37
• 1.2 Hanoi Haiphong Expressway (2009-2015) 48
• 1.3 Observation of risk allocation under the pre-2020 PPP framework 55
• 2. Post-2020 Law cases 60
• 2.1 Trung Luong My Thuan Expressway project (2020-2021) 60
• 2.2 Dong Dang-Tra Linh Expressway Project (2024~) 70
• 2.3 Observation of risk allocation under the pre-2020 PPP framework 81
• 3. Comparative analysis of risk allocation mechanism between Pre and Post 2020 PPP Law 84
• 3.1 Pre-construction risks 84
• 3.2 Construction and completion risks 85
• 3.3 Demand (revenue) risks 85
• 3.4 Financial and macroeconomic risks 86
• 3.5 Regulatory and political risks 86
• 3.6 Force majeure and termination risks 87
• 4. Discussion: Evolution and challenges of risk allocation in Vietnam's transport PPPs 87
• 4.1 From informal practices to legal codification 87
• 4.2 Structural improvements in risk sharing 88
• 4.3 Persistent implementation gaps and legal rigidities 89
• 4.4 Cultural and institutional learning 90
• VI. Conclusion 91
• 1. Summary of research 91
• 2. Lesson for future transport PPPs in Vietnam 93
• 3. Limitations and suggestions for future research 94
• Bibliography
• Abstract in Korean (초록)