Oil Export and Military Intervention to Democratize an Autocracy

국문 초록 (Abstract)

기존연구들은 민주화를 설명함에 있어 외부 민주화 압력이 중요함을 강조하고 있지만, 석유의 저주에 대한 연구들의 경우 석유가 외부 민주화 압력에 어떤 영향을 미치는지에 대해서는 거의 분석하지 않고 있다. 본 연구는 권위주의 국가의 석유 수출이 외부 민주화 압력을 감소시켜 민주화 확률을 낮출 수 있음을 주장한다. 권위주의 국가의 석유수출은 세 가지 석유수출의 특징인 주 에너지원으로서의 석유 중요도, 수출국에 우호적인 국제석유시장 구조, 석유의 가격 비탄력성으로 인해 군사개입의 비용은 높이고 효율성은 감소시켜 민주주의 국가가 석유를 수출하는 권위주의 국가에는 민주화를 위한 군사개입을 잘 하지 못하게 만든다. 본 연구의 경험적 분석 결과는 이 주장을 잘 보여주고 있다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Prior studies have argued that external pressures are important determinants of democratization. However, although a large literature have analyzed the effect of oil on domestic democratizing pressures, few have focused on how oil affects external ones. This study argues that an autocracy’s oil export reduces external democratizing pressures. An autocracy’s oil export increases costs of external democratizing pressures, and reduces the efficiency of the pressures because of three characteristics of oil export: the importance of oil as a primary energy source, the exporter-favored structure of the international oil market, and price inelasticity of oil. To examine this argument, this study focuses on a democracy’s military intervention to democratize an autocracy, the expensive but most powerful foreign policy to democratize an autocracy. Empirical results support this argument.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract
• I. Introduction
• Ⅱ. The Rentier State Effect and Democratization
• Ⅲ. External Democratizing Pressures
• Ⅳ. The Impact of Oil on Military External Democratizing Pressures
• Ⅴ. Research design
• Ⅵ. Results
• Ⅶ. Robustness
• Ⅷ. Conclusion
• 참고문헌
• 국문초록

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