中國과 北韓의 開放化가 世界觀光市場構造에 미치는 影響에 관한 硏究 = A Study on Impacts of Openness in China and North Korea upon the Structure of World Tourism Market

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study is prompted by the success of the partial open economy system adopted by People's Republic of China in the 1980s, which importantly resulted in the change of her in-outbound tourism structure. It is an interesting phenomenon that a socialist state rears its tourism industry by means of adopting an open economy system. Learning from the case of China, we could extend our attention to North Korea. Should North Korea adopt an open economy system the similar way People's Republic of China did, What impacts would it have on their tourism industry? In this study, the in-outbound structures were separately analyzed for South Korea and North Korea in 2001, the predicted year of economic unification arbitrarily set by the author, and were analyzed in the aggregate for the Korean Peninsula in 2012, the predicted year of political unification.
International tourism mainly depends on geographical accessibility, which is clearly proven by the historical data of international tourism statistic. The Korean Peninsula is closely related to China and Japan in terms of history and culture, and similar in that all these three countries use Chinese characters. The purpose of this study was to forecast and analyze the influences of the complete open economy and tourism market that China and North Korea may adopt in the future, on the tourism market structures of Northeast Asia and of the world.
The results of the analyses are summarized as follows. The average rate of increase in the total number of international tourists is 7.3% from 1950 through 1992. Sixty percent of these tourists are from Europe, 21.5% from America, 12.3% from East Asia and Pacific region, 3.6% from Africa, 1.5% from Mid East, 0.7% from South Asia. It is predicted from the current distribution that the increase rate of European tourists will diminish in the future, whereas that of East Asia and Pacific region will steepen, so that the importance of these two market segments will eventually level out. In 2012, the proportion of European tourists in the total number of international tourists traveling to China will decrease, while that of the tourists from East Asia and Pacific region will increase.
The predicted number of Chinese outbound tourists in 2011 is 5 million, whose destinations are expected to be South Korea(20%), North Korea(5%), Japan(20%), other East Asia and Pacific rim countries(35%), and others(20%). In 2012 when the total number of Chinese outbound tourists reach 20 million, it is estimated that 22%(4.4 million) of them will visit the Korean Peninsula, approximately the same number will visit Japan, 31%(7.2 million) will visit East Asia and Pacific region, and 20%(4 million) will visit other countries. In other words, the outbound tourism of China will take a form of short distance tourism in which the destination will concentrate on the Korean Peninsula, Japan, and other East Asia and Pacific rim countries.
In 2001, china as a travel destination will pose a problem of distances in different senses to potential tourists from Europe, America, and Africa, including economic distance, socio-cultural distance, psychological distance, geographical distance, political/diplomatic distance, and time distance. However, East Asia and Pacific rim countries as well as South Asian countries will have a comparatively low level of distance resistance, which indicates that the open policy of China will result in the restructure of the international tourism market to stimulate China's inbound tourism which is best characterized by short distance tourism.
In 2012, the predicted year of political unification of the Korean Peninsula, the open policy of China will further shorten the economic distance, socio-cultural distance, political-diplomatic distance, and time distance for the European market than in 2001. Such distance resistance will be reduced to the even greater degree for the American market, and it will be least for the tourism market of East Asia and Pacific Region.
The population of Korea when politically unified in 2012 will reach 80 million, and the number of tourists will be conspicuously large, as well. This study took a conservative position in the future forecast and analyzed the statistic in a reserved manner. For instance, the author counted the population of China 1,000 million instead of 1,200 million as generally known. In 2012, the population of unified Korea will be 80 million, China 1,200 million, and Japan 120 million, to make the total population of Far East 1,400 million. If 800 million, the population of India, is added to this number, the total counts reach 2,200 million which is almost a half of the world population. When regional integration, world integration, and accessibility theory are considered, Asia will play an integral role in restructuring the world tourism market in the 2000s.
The author admits the limitation of the statistical approach adopted in this study. The following research will be dedicated to complement these short comings.
In conclusion, the change of tourism structure in Northeast Asia will bring about the change of tourism structure of the world. Such rapidly changing tourism environment calls for a new international tourism organization that involves South Korea, North Korea, China, and Japan, and for the establishment of various policies to achieve regional integration of tourism.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 序論
• 1. 硏究目的
• 2. 硏究의 方法 및 範圍
• Ⅱ. 經營開放化와 觀光市場 變化에 관한 理論的 背景
• 1. 經營開放化의 意義 및 特性
• 2. 觀光市場 構造變化의 要因
• 3. 經營開放化와 觀光市場構造變化와의 相關性
• 4. 影響分析의 範疇
• Ⅲ. 中國과 北韓의 開放化 實態 分析
• 1. 中國의 開放化 實態 分析
• 2. 北韓의 開放化 實態 分析
• Ⅳ. 世界觀光市場의 構造 分析
• 1. 地域別 · 國家別 In-Outbound現況과 觀光收支
• 2. 國際觀光客의 域間移動과 域內移動
• 3. 世界觀光市場 變化 推移
• 4. 世界觀光市場 構造變化에 작용할 諸要因
• Ⅴ. 中國觀光市場 開放의 影響 分析
• 1. 分析을 위한 假定
• 2. 中國觀光市場 開放의 影響
• Ⅵ. 北韓觀光市場 開放의 影響 分析
• 1. 分析을 위한 假定
• 2. 北韓觀光市場 開放의 影響
• Ⅶ. 分析結果에 對한 討論
• 1. 中國觀光市場 開放의 影響分析에 對한 討論
• 2. 北韓觀光市場 開放의 影響分析에 對한 討論
• Ⅷ. 結論
• 參考文獻
• Abstract