코로나 19와 부동산 감정평가 = The Effects of COVID-19 on Real Estate Appraisal

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This article predicts the impact of COVID-19 on the real estate market, examines how it will affect the real estate appraisal industry, and what alternatives are there. The responses of governments such as the United States to the outbreak of COVID-19 acknowledge the deferral of appraisal obligations, and measures for the exterior-only and desktop appraisal. The appraisal industry requires appraisers to specify “material uncertainty” in preparation for future legal disputes. On the other hand, machine learning-based valuation, which was expected to replace human appraisers recently, has become difficult to be an appropriate alternative due to the recent rapid change in transaction prices, sharp decline in transactions, and the peculiarity of pricing patterns. In times of crisis, human appraisers can reasonably predict the future based on the consensus of investors, despite rapid market fluctuations.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이 글은 코로나 19가 부동산 시장에 미치는 영향을 예상하고, 부동산 감정평가 산업에 어떠한 영향을 미칠지, 그 대안은 무엇인지 검토한 글이다. 코로나 19 확산에대한 미국 등 정부의 대응은 감정평가 의무의 연기, 외부에서만 조사하고 컴퓨터로평가하는 방안을 인정한다. 감정평가산업은 감정평가사에게 “중대한 불확실성”을명시하도록 요구하여, 후일 법적 분쟁에 휘말릴 경우를 대비하고 있다. 한편 최근인간 감정평가사를 대체할 것으로 기대했던 기계학습 기반 감정평가는 최근의 급변한 거래가격, 거래의 급감, 가격설정 패턴의 특수성 등으로 적정한 대안이 되기는어렵게 되었다. 위기의 시기에는 인간 감정평가사가 급격한 시장 상황의 변동에도투자자의 합의에 기초하여 합리적으로 미래를 예측할 수 있다.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 홍준표, "최근 글로벌 경기 동향 및 주요 경제 이슈-2020년 1분기" 현대경제연구원 20 (20): 1-27, 2020

2 Nicola, M., "The Socio-economic Implications of the Coronavirus Pandemic(COVID-19) : A review" 78 : 185-193, 2020

3 MSCI, "The COVID-19 Pandemic and the MSCI Private Real Estate Indexes"

4 RICS, "RICS Material Valuation Uncertainty – Criteria, Requirements and Considerations for Declaring and Rescinding Material Uncertainty"

5 Suryanarayanan, R, "Private and Public Real Estate — What’s the Link?" MSCI Research

6 Das, P, "Machines vs Humans: Real Estate Valuation During Coronavirus"

7 Christensen P, "Legal and Risk Issues for Appraisers Stemming from the COVID-19 Crisis"

8 The New York Times, "How Coronavirus Has Affected Real Estate"

9 CITYA. M, "How Badly Will Coronavirus Hit UK House Prices in 2020?"

10 FDIC, "Frequently Asked Questions for Financial Institutions Affected by the COVID-19"

11 Appraisal Foundation, "Coronavirus and Appraisers: Your Questions Answered"

12 EHL Insight, "Commercial Real Estate Valuation in the Covid-19 Era"

13 Ernst and Young LLP, "COVID-19: Real Estate Valuation Considerations"

14 PWC, "COVID-19: Impact on Real Estate Valuation and Financial Reporting"

15 Appraisal Subcommittee, "COVID-19 Outbreak - State Appraisal/AMC Program Guidance"

16 Del Giudice, V., "COVID-19 Infects Real Estate Markets : Short and Mid-Run Effects on Housing Prices in Campania Region(Italy)" 9 (9): 114-, 2020

17 Housingwire, "Appraisal Technology Reduces Risk for Appraisers and Homebuyers in the Midst of COVID-19"

18 NCREIF Valuation Committee Bulletin, "Appraisal Disclaimers, Disclosures and Material Uncertainty Clauses in Appraisal Reports"

19 ASA, "ASA USPAP Guidance for Real Property Appraisers – Coronavirus/COVID-19Issues"

20 Loychik, L, "3 Ways COVID-19 Has Impacted Real Estate Valuations"