Protesting Authoritarianism: Interactions between ICTs and Political Opportunity Structures = 권위주의 국가에서의 반정부 시위: 정보통신기술과 정치 기회 구조 간의 상호작용을 중심으로

국문 초록 (Abstract)

권위주의 국가에서 발생하는 반정부 시위의 차이를 설명하는 요인은 무엇인가? 본 논문은 정보통신기술(information and communication technologies; ICT)의 확산과 정치 기회 구조(political opportunity structures) 사이의 상호작용에 초점을 맞추고 있다. 권위주의 맥락에서 ICT의 확산에는 시위의 발생을 촉진할 수 있는 요소와 시위를 저해 할 수 있는 요소가 공존하기 때문에 ICT의 확산 자체가 반정부 시위에 미치는 직접적 효과는 불확실하다고 주장한다. 그러나 정치 기회의 구조가 열릴수록 ICT의 확산이 반정부 시위에 더 유의미하고 긍정적인 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상한다. 본 논문의 주장을 검증하기 위하여 1990년~2017년 시기에 해당하는 103개 권위주의 국가에 관한 데이터를 기반으로 음이항 회귀(negative binomial regression) 모형을 사용한다. 이에 따른 분석 결과는 ICT 확산 자체가 반정부 시위에 유의미한 영향을 미친다는 주장에 의문을 제기한다. 반면에 개방적이고 경쟁적인 방식으로 선거가 시행되고 시민들의 정치 참여에 대한 국가 개입 수준이 낮아질수록, 즉 정치 기회의 구조가 열릴수록, ICT의 확산이 반정부 시위에 미치는 영향은 더 유의미하고 긍정적으로 나타난다. 본 논문은 정치 기회의 구조라는 매개 요인에 따라 ICT의 확산이 반정부 시위에 미치는 영향이 어떻게 달라지는지를 분석함으로써 관계적 자원과 정치 기회의 구조를 다뤄온 사회운동 문헌과 권위주의 국가에서 발생하는 반정부 시위에 관한 문헌 사이의 가능한 연결지점을 모색하고 제시한다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

What accounts for variations in protests against authoritarian governments? This article focuses on the interactive relationship between the proliferation of information and communication technologies (ICTs) and the opening of political opportunity structures. This paper suggests that ICTs’ effects on protests are likely ambiguous due to the tensions that exist between the protest-facilitating and protest-hindering aspects of ICTs. As political opportunity structures become more open, however, the diffusion of ICTs is expected to have a more significant and positive impact on protests. Negative binomial regression tests based on a dataset of 103 authoritarian countries (1990–2017) show inconsistent evidence for the claim that the diffusion of ICTs in itself is a significant and positive determinant of protests. As hypothesized, ICTs are found to affect protests significantly more positively with the opening of political opportunity structures—that is, when national elections are held openly and competitively, and the state enforces less restrictions on political participation. By demonstrating how the influence of ICTs’ diffusion on protests varies according to these moderating factors, this article connects and applies the relational resources and political opportunity approaches from the social movement literature to the study of protesting authoritarianism.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. Introduction
• Ⅱ. Motivational Grievances, Relational Resources, and Political Opportunity Structures
• Ⅲ. A Theory of Protesting Authoritarianism: Interactions between ICTs and Political Opportunity Structures
• Ⅳ. Data and Measurement
• Ⅴ. Empirical Results
• Ⅵ. Robustness Checks
• Ⅶ. Conclusion
• References

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