미국 트럼프 관세체제의 파급영향 분석 = The Impacts of the Trump Administration’s Tariff Regime

국문 초록 (Abstract)

미국 트럼프 행정부는 전 세계 국가들을 대상으로 일방적인 고관세를 부과하고 있지만, 고관세 조치에는 필연적으로 경제 악화, 인플레이션 등 국내 경제에 부작용이 초래되기 때문에, 미국도 무작정 고관세를 유지하기는 어려운 상황이다. 2025년 8월 7일부로 상호관세가 발효되었지만, 협상은 여전히 진행 중이고 이들 관세율 역시 앞으로 변동될 가능성이 높다. 본 논문은 평균 15% 관세율 체계를 확립해 나가고 있는 트럼프 행정부 관세정책의 내용과 추세를 분석하고, 트럼프 대통령 임기 내 예상 가능한 시나리오 5개를 설정하여 그 파급영향을 추정하였으며, 현재 진행되고 있는 대미 관세협상의 시사점을 도출하였다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The Trump administration has been unilaterally imposing high tariffs on countries around the world. However, such tariffs inevitably produce adverse economic consequences—including GDP losses and inflation—making it difficult for the US to sustain these measures indefinitely. Many previous studies analyzing the effects of US tariffs assume that high tariffs will persist, without adequately considering the US’s tariff strategy or its intended endpoint. In practice, the United States is negotiating tariff rates and terms of trade with each partner country in order to mitigate the negative impacts of these tariffs. Although reciprocal tariffs took effect on August 7, negotiations remain ongoing, and these rates are likely to be revised. Under the current framework, the US imposes a reciprocal tariff of 10% on countries running a trade surplus and approximately 20% on countries with a trade deficit, targeting about 15% average tariff rates. This paper examines the content and trajectory of the Trump administration’s tariff policy, identifies five potential scenarios during the Trump presidency, estimates their economic impacts, and considers the implications for ongoing US–China tariff negotiations. Our analysis indicates that, across all five scenarios, the tariff measures would lead to a contraction in US GDP and substantial inflationary pressures. Key partners including EU, Korea, Japan and ASEAN are also projected to face considerable losses. At the same time, the US—mindful of the domestic costs of sustaining high tariffs—is also seeking to expedite these negotiations. Based on the findings presented in this paper, we argue that a clear understanding of Washington’s negotiation strategy is essential for crafting effective bargaining strategies with the United States.