상업용지 입찰가격 결정에 관한 연구 : 공영개발사업을 중심으로 = A study on the determinants of commercial land bidding price : focused on public real estate development

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Commercial land supplied by public development projects in Korea is
supplied differently from the original purpose, resulting in unsold or
excessive competition. Commercial land that is auctioned at an amount
higher than the expected supply price increases the cost of land, which
affects the sale price of commercial buildings that are supplied to
general sellers.
Investors who sold commercial buildings wanted to receive at least
equal or higher rent than the loan interest, and the high rent, which
was formed like this, led to a decline in commercial revitalization, even
though the entry period has passed. As buildings in completed
commercial sites are increasing in vacancy due to long-term unsold or
long-term unleased, unlike the original plan of the public development
project provider, they are becoming a nuisance.
In response, this study surveyed developers participating in
commercial land bids to analyze the factors that affect bidding price
decisions, bidding amount, and the relationship between sale price after
winning bids to help developers make reasonable decisions and
stabilize the commercial land supply.
Commercial land bid prices for public development projects belong to
a large category of real estate prices, and the estimated supply amount
of each land is calculated as an appraisal value, so a theoretical
review was conducted as a factor of forming real estate prices and
factors of forming real estate values.
For the factors that affect the bid price, the area, the direction of the
lot, and the shape are individual factors, the distance to public
facilities, the distance from the subway, the distance from the city
center, and the accessibility to the drainage household as the regional
factors, and the floor area ratio of the land. And building-to-land ratio
and building size as administrative factors, commercial land size and
the number of residential households as environmental factors, changes
in real estate-related taxation and loan regulation as policy factors,
and the time of securing land at the stage of project planning, and the
time of sale as business factors. Thus, six independent variables were
set, and the influence relationship between the bid amount and the sale
property was analyzed using a structural equation model.
As a result of the analysis, the policy factors and project factors
showed significant values in the bid amount and sales. This statistical
result means that the government's regulation of loans, the status and
fluctuations of housing land supply, the status of regulation on trading,
and the status of the regulation on rent have influenced the decision
of the bid price, and the possibility of securing land cost after
receiving a successful bid This means that it is a major factor in
determining the bid price when participating in a bid for commercial
land.
In other words, the bid amount for commercial land for public
development projects is more affected when policies are implemented
to ease or strengthen the developer's intuitive judgment, profitability
and government regulations related to real estate rather than the
individual characteristics of land or region.
And the judgment of demand is determined by reducing the relative
importance of each factor by six factors, including policy factors and
business factors, and the intuitive judgment of business feasibility is
determined based on policy factors and business factors.
On the other hand, the highest price bidding competition method of
the commercial land supply system acts as a catalyst that induces
excessive competition to secure land and increases land cost.
Therefore, for the supply of commercial land for public development
projects, I would like to propose a method for stabilizing land cost
based on the results of this study.
First, Prior to supply of commercial land, if competition is expected
to exceed 150% more than the expected supply price by comparing
and comprehensively considering the location, size, and consumers of
other public development projects by investigating the sales property,
through internal guidelines, a certain successful bid rate or higher
After selecting the participants (preliminary successful bidders), it is
proposed to introduce the “preliminary successful bidder lottery
system” to determine the successful bidder by lottery. Alternatively, it
is possible to set the “preliminary successful bid rate” and select the
person who presented the bid most closely as the successful bidder.
Second, it is necessary to induce real buyers of land to participate in
bidding. Since speculators receive a successful bid and sell again, the
price of land rises, so the qualification requirements for bidding must
be strengthened. in order to participate in the bidding, the deposit
must be paid 5-10% of the bid amount, but it will be possible to
select the actual users by setting the bid deposit up to 20% or more
by strengthening the bid deposit.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

우리나라 공영개발사업에서 공급하는 상업용지는 사업지구 및 구역 지정
의 목적과 추진배경과는 다른 획일적인 계획과 이용을 바탕으로 공급되어
상업용지의 미분양 혹은 과다한 경쟁이 발생하고 있다.
공급예정가보다 높은 금액으로 낙찰된 상업용지는 원자재의 상승, 즉 토
지원가 상승으로 이어져 낙찰받은 시행사, 건설회사 등이 호텔, 오피스,
근린생활시설 등 상업용 건축물을 건축하여 일반투자자에게 높은 금액으
로 공급하게 된다.
한편, 상업용 건축물을 분양받은 일반투자자는 최소한 대출이자보다 같
거나, 높은 임대료를 받아야 투자 수익이 발생된다. 임대인과 임차인의 임
대료 불균형은 공영개발사업 준공 후 입주시기가 지났음에도 불구하고,
상권 활성화 저해요인으로 이어져갔다. 준공된 상업용 건축물들의 장기
미분양 혹은 미임대 현상은 공영개발사업 공급자의 당초 계획과는 달리
공영개발사업 지구와 구역의 흉물이 되어가고 있다.
이에 본 연구는 상업용지 입찰에 참여하는 시행사, 건설회사 임․직원을
대상으로 설문을 통해 공영개발사업의 상업용지 입찰 시 입찰가격을 결정
에 영향을 주는 요인과 입찰금액, 낙찰받은 후 분양성과의 영향 관계를
분석한다. 그 결과를 바탕으로 공영개발사업의 상업용지 입찰에 참여하는
시행사, 건설회사 등 부동산개발업자에게 합리적인 의사결정을 하도록 도움을 주고, 나아가 공급자에게는 공영개발사업의 상업용지 공급에 있어
적절한 공급가 형성으로 시장의 안정화 및 활성화에 도움이 되고자 한다.
공영개발사업의 상업용지 입찰가격은 부동산가격이라는 큰 범주에 속하
고, 각 필지의 공급예정가격은 감정평가금액으로 산정되므로, 부동산 가격
의 형성요인과 부동산 가치의 형성요인으로 이론 검토를 진행하였다.
입찰가격에 영향을 주는 요인에 대해 입찰 참여 필지의 면적, 필지의 향,
모양 등을 개별요인으로 선정하고, 공공시설과의 거리, 지하철과의 거리,
도심과의 거리, 배후세대와의 접근성 등을 지역요인으로 선정하였다.
또한, 해당 필지의 용적률 및 건폐율, 건축물의 규모 등을 행정요인으로
선정하고, 상업용지 규모, 배후 주거 세대수 등을 환경요인으로 선정하였
으며, 부동산 관련 세제의 변동, 대출규제 등을 정책요인으로 선정하였다.
그리고, 실무 경험을 토대로 사업구상 단계의 토지확보, PF가능성, 분양시
기 등을 사업요인으로 선정하였다. 총 6가지 요인을 독립변수로 설정하고,
입찰금액을 매개변수로 선정하였으며, 분양성을 종속변수로 선정하여 각
변수의 영향관계를 구조방정식 모형으로 분석하였다.
그 결과, 정책요인, 사업요인이 입찰가격과 분양성에 유의한 값을 보였
다. 세부적으로는 정부의 대출규제, 택지공급 상태 및 변동, 매매 규제 상
태, 임대료 규제 상태와, 사업구상 단계의 토지 확보, 낙찰 받은 후 토지
비 확보 가능성이 공영개발사업의 상업용지 입찰참여 시 입찰가격을 결정
하는 주요 요인이라는 것을 의미한다.
따라서, 공영개발사업의 상업용지 입찰가격은 필지의 개별적 특성과 입
지, 지역 특성, 행정과 환경적 특성보다는 부동산개발업자의 경험에 따른
직관과 수익성 판단과 정부의 부동산 관련 규제를 완화하거나 강화하는
정책이 시행될 때, 입찰가격 결정의 영향 정도가 많음을 의미한다.
결국 분양성, 사업성은 시행사 및 건설회사 등이 공급자로부터 입찰에
참여하여 토지를 공급받아 상업용 건축물을 일반인에게 분양을 하여야만
수익과 연결이 되기 때문에 수요에 대한 판단으로 해석할 수 있다.
그리고 수요에 대한 판단은 개별요인, 지역요인, 행정요인, 환경요인, 정
책요인, 사업요인 6가지 요인 중 정책요인과 사업요인 중심으로 시행사
등 개발회사의 분양성 판단과 사업성에 대한 직관적 판단이 6가지 각 요
인과 작용하여 결정되는데, 상황에 따라 각 요인별 상대적 중요도 가감하
면서 결정되어진다.
한편, 상업용지 공급제도의 최고가 입찰경쟁 방식은 토지 확보가 필요한
입찰참여자에게 과도한 경쟁을 유발 시켜 토지원가 상승의 원인으로 작용
된다. 따라서 공영개발사업의 상업용지 공급에 있어, 본 연구의 결과를 중
심으로 토지원가의 안정화 방안을 제안하고자 한다.
첫째, 상업용지 공급 전, 사전에 분양성을 조사하여 타 공영개발 지구와
위치, 규모, 수요자 등을 종합적으로 고려하여 공급예정가 보다 낙찰률이
150% 이상 과도한 경쟁이 예상될 경우, 내부 지침을 정해 일정 낙찰률
이상 입찰 참여자들을 선정(이하가 낙찰자라 한다.)후, 추첨하여 낙찰
자를 결정하는 “가 낙찰자 추첨제” 도입을 제안한다. 혹은 “가 낙찰률”을
정해, 가장 근접하게 입찰금액을 제시한 자를 낙찰자로 선정하는 것도 방
법이다.
둘째, 입찰에 참가하는 자의 자격요건을 해당 필지의 실구매자가 될 수
있도록 유도하여야 한다. 투기세력이 낙찰받아 전매를 통해 토지원가의
상승을 부추기고 있기 때문에 입찰 참가 자격요건을 강화하여야 한다.
건설회사 및 시행사의 경우 국토교통부에 ‘부동산개발등록’한 회사만 참
여할 수 있도록 하거나, 입찰 참여 회사의 자본금과 일정규모의 실적 등
으로 입찰 참가자를 제한 할 수 있으며, 현재는 입찰에 참여하기 위해서
는 입찰금액의 5～10% 보증금을 납부하도록 하지만, 보증금을 20% 이상
강화하여 실수요자를 선별하는 방법도 가능하다.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제1장 서 론································································································1
• 제1절 연구의 배경과 목적·················································································1
• 제1항 연구의 배경························································································1
• 제2항 연구의 목적························································································4
• 제2절 연구 범위와 방법····················································································5
• 제1항 연구의 범위························································································5
• 제2항 연구의 방법························································································6
• 제2장 이론 고찰 및 선행연구 ·····························································11
• 제1절 부동산 가격과 상업용지 ······························································11
• 제1항 부동산의 가격과 형성요인 ····························································11
• 제2항 상업용지의 특징과 수익································································30
• 제2절 선행연구의 검토 ···················································································59
• 제1항 선행연구의 고찰 ············································································59
• 제2항 선행연구와의 차별성 ······································································66
• 제3장 공영개발사업의 상업용지 공급제도와 현황 및 시사점········· 68
• 제1절 공영개발사업··························································································68
• 제1항 공영개발사업의 개념 ······································································68
• 제2항 부동산 공영개발사업의 유형 ························································71
• 제2절 공영개발사업의 상업용지 공급제도····················································74
• 제1항 택지개발촉진법의 공급방법과 공급예정가격····························74
• 제2항 도시개발법의 공급방법과 공급예정가격 ····································79
• 제3항공공주택 특별법의 공급방법과 공급예정가격 ···················· 82
• 제4항산업입지 및 개발에 관한 법률의 공급방법과 공급예정가격··· 85
• 제3절 공급현황··································································································87
• 제1항 택지개발촉진법에 따른 공급현황 ················································87
• 제2항 도시개발법에 따른 공급현황 ························································98
• 제3항공공주택 특별법에 따른 공급현황······································ 102
• 제4항산업입지 및 개발에 관한 법률에 따른 공급현황 ············ 106
• 제4절 시사점····································································································108
• 제1항 공영개발사업의 수익성 ································································108
• 제2항 고분양가에 따른 공실 증가 ························································111
• 제4장 실증분석 ······················································································113
• 제1절 연구개요································································································113
• 제1항 연구의 가설····················································································113
• 제2항 연구모형 ··························································································114
• 제3항 변수의 설정····················································································115
• 제2절 자료 수집 및 분석 방법·····································································127
• 제1항 자료 수집 및 설문의 구성 ··························································127
• 제2항 자료 분석 방법 ··············································································129
• 제3절 실증분석 결과······················································································130
• 제1항 기초 통계량····················································································130
• 제2항 탐색적 요인분석과 신뢰도 분석 ················································140
• 제3항 상관관계 ························································································155
• 제4항 경로분석 ··························································································157
• 제5항 구조방정식 분석 ············································································160
• 제4절 분석 결과······························································································169
• 제1항 가설의 채택····················································································169
• 제2항 연구의 요약····················································································170
• 제3항 분양성 A와B 반대질문의 결과 ··················································171
• 제5장 결론 ······························································································173
• 제1절 연구의 결론과 정책제안·····································································173
• 제1항 연구의 결론····················································································173
• 제2항 정책제안 ··························································································174
• 제2절 연구의 한계점 및 향후 과제 ····························································177
• 참고문헌 ················································································································178
• <부록 1> ··············································································································184
• <부록 2> ··············································································································187
• <부록 3> ··············································································································193