주택 분양시기 이연에 따른 소비자 지급금액의 변화 = A Simulation to estimate the change of consumers’ fiscal budgets in accordance with the delays of housing sales starts

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this study is to simulate how the home buyers’ fiscal budget will change by thedelays of housing sales from presales to spot sales, with the proforma analysis of residentialdevelopments in Yong-In City, Gyunggi-Do. Delaying the beginning of sales by 20%, 40%, 60% and80% regarding construction progress ratio increases the amount of interest carry of theconstruction loan. The housing prices may go up to compensate the profit losses as much as 3.2%:which puts pressure on buyers’ fiscal budget. Though, the delays of sales start also tend to saveconsumers’ interest expenses for the installment payment loan: which, in turn, can offset manyportions of balloon effect of housing prices.
The simulation results show that the net increase in consumers’ financial expenses due to thedelays in housing sales from presales to spot transactions is estimated merely as 0.03%, on thecurrent price term. The present value of total expenses for spot sale is, instead, 3.8% less than thediscounted amount of the comparable for presale. Sensitivity analyses with the changes in discountrates, index rates of the construction loan, the spread of installment payment loan, sales prices,land prices and hard costs also confirm the above simulation results.
One of the most formidable threats raised by the opponents against spot sale was the hugestep-ups of housing sales prices due to the exploding interest carries of the construction loan. Thispremise does not seem to stay away from the development practices. The incremental fiscal burdenfor home buyers caused by the changeovers to spot sale system, however, is not so tremendousas their allegation, which is obviously exaggerated than the actual.

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