주택정책의 정책효과 및 정책시차 효과에 관한 연구 = A Study on Policy Impacts and Policy Lag Effects of Housing Policies

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Using the macro economic data, this study aimed to assess the impact of policy measures, such as DTI, LTV, housing subscription and transfer of housing purchase right, from 2007 to 2014 in Seoul. First of all, analysis based on housing prices in Seoul showed that CPI(_t-3) and mortgage rate(_t-1) among macro variables affected the housing price. However, GDP and unemployment rate had no statistically meaningful impact.
In addition, according to comprehensive comparison of policy intact and time lag impact of policy measures，DTI, LTV, housing subscription and transfer of housing purchase right, on housing prices, it was found that only DTI(t) had meaningful impact CPI and mortgage rate also had a negative impact. These results can be interpreted as consistent with the analysis results of using each policy.
To compare impact of each policy measure on housing price, we conducted the analysis of each policy measure on initial sales rate of each new apartment site. According to the multiple regression analysis based on initial sales rate of each new apartment site, LTV, apartment brand ranking, rate of unsold new apartment and housing trade volume had a significant impact but DTI was concluded to have no statistically meaningful impact.
After assessing the comprehensive impact of policy measures, the impact (R2) of each measure was compared Mortgage rate accounted for 47.4% of R² with one mont time lag in analysis based on existing housing prices, DTI accounted for 20.9% of R².
This study is meaningful as it aimed to evaluate intact of housing policy measures and time lags of policy. However, if sufficient data get accumulated in the future, there is a need of further researches that extend the period of analysis and consider housing prices cycle and an impact on metropolitan regions and non-metropolitan.