중국과 RCEP 국가의 농산물 무역잠재력에 관한 연구 = A Study on the Potential of Agricultural Products Trade between China and RCEP Countries

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In November 2020, RCEP, the largest regional trade agreement involving the largest population and scale in the world today, was finally successfully signed. The conclusion of RCEP will provide a platform to further strengthen agricultural cooperation and enhance trade development among member countries. By measuring the agricultural products trade data between China and RCEP countries, exploring the reasons affecting the growth of agricultural products trade between the two sides, and analyzing the efficiency, potential and influencing factors of agricultural trade between the two sides, it is of great value to promote the smooth flow of agricultural trade between China and RCEP countries and further enhance the potential of agricultural trade between the two sides.
To explore the reasons affecting the growth of China's agricultural products trade with RCEP countries, this paper applies the constant market share model to decompose the changes of China's agricultural products trade with RCEP countries in both directions based on the data of China's agricultural products trade with RCEP countries. Results showed that the growth effect of China's agricultural exports to RCEP countries no longer promotes exports, and the decline of competitiveness is also detrimental to exports. However, the commodity effect and market effect are strengthening the promotion of exports. The growth effect of RCEP countries' agricultural exports to China is dominant at all stages, and in recent years, the improvement of export competitiveness is also promoting exports. However, the unreasonable structure of export products inhibits the growth of exports.
To analyze the efficiency, potential and influencing factors of agricultural products trade between China and RCEP countries, this paper constructs a stochastic frontier gravity model and a trade inefficiency model based on agricultural products trade data between China and RCEP countries. The results of the stochastic frontier gravity model show that, for imports, the GDP of RCEP countries, total population of China and RCEP countries, the distance between the capitals of China and RCEP countries, and whether China and RCEP countries share a common language have significant positive effects. For exports, the GDP of China and RCEP countries, per capita GDP gap between China and RCEP countries, total population of RCEP countries, whether China and RCEP countries share a common language, and whether they have signed an FTA have significant positive effects, while the distance between the capitals of China and RCEP countries and whether they have adjacent borders have significant negative effects. The results of the one-step method show that, for imports, the liner shipping connectivity index, political stability, financial freedom, competitiveness of agricultural products in China and RCEP countries, and the share of agricultural employment are favorable to trade efficiency, while political democracy and value added per capita in agriculture are unfavorable to trade efficiency. For exports, the liner shipping connectivity index and financial freedom are favorable to trade efficiency, while political democracy, competitiveness of agricultural products in China and RCEP countries, and the share of agricultural employment are unfavorable to trade efficiency. At the same time, the average value of the import trade efficiency of agricultural products between China and RCEP countries decreased from 0.5006 in 2000 to 0.2252 in 2020, while the average value of export trade efficiency increased from 0.314 in 2000 to 0.6352 in 2020. The overall export trade efficiency is higher than the import trade efficiency, and the efficiency of import and export trade is highly heterogeneous among countries. Hence, a large trade potential is yet to be explored. Finally, this research puts forward feasible suggestions for further improving the efficiency of agricultural products trade between China and RCEP countries and tapping the potential of bilateral agricultural products trade.
Finally, in order to further improve the efficiency of agricultural trade between China and RCEP countries and tap the potential of bilateral agricultural trade, this paper puts forward the following suggestions. (1) Seize the opportunity of the development of "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" and further strengthen the construction of transportation and other infrastructure between China and RCEP countries. (2) Improve government efficiency and pay attention to financial risks. (3) Pay attention to the heterogeneity of RCEP countries and implement country-specific management of agricultural products imports and exports. (4) Enhance the competitiveness of agricultural products trade and balance the coordinated development of domestic demand and external demand.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

2020年11月，RCEP這一當今世界上涉及人口最多、規模最大的區域貿易協定終於成功簽署。RCEP的達成將為進一步加強成員國農業合作、提升貿易發展水平提供平臺。通過測算中國與RCEP國家的農產品貿易數據，探討影響雙方農產品貿易增長的原因，分析雙方農產品貿易效率、潛力及影響因素，對於推動中國與RCEP國家之間農產品貿易暢通、進一步提升雙方農產品貿易潛力具有重要價值。
為探討影響中國與RCEP國家農產品貿易增長的原因，本文基於中國與RCEP國家農產品貿易數據運用恒定市場份額模型對中國與RCEP國家農產品貿易變動進行了雙向分解。研究發現：在中國對RCEP國家農產品出口方面，整體來看，增長效應是主導原因，但具體分階段來看，增長效率反而呈下降趨勢，甚至不再促進出口，此外，競爭力下降不利與出口，然而出口產品結構效應和出口市場效用的促進作用不斷加強。RCEP國家對中國農產品出口方面，各個階段增長效應都占主導作用，近年來，出口競爭力提升也在促進出口，但出口產品結構與中國進口需求結構錯位，不利於擴大出口。
為分析中國與RCEP國家農產品貿易效率、潛力及影響因素，本文基於中國與RCEP國家農產品貿易數據構建了隨機前沿引力模型和貿易非效率模型。研究表明：（1）進口方面，RCEP國家GDP、中國及RCEP國家總人口、中國與RCEP首都之間的距離、中國與RCEP國家是否擁有共同語言具有顯著的正向影響；出口方面，中國及RCEP國家GDP、中國與RCEP國家人均GDP的差距、RCEP國家總人口、中國與RCEP國家是否擁有共同語言及是否簽訂FTA具有顯著的正向影響，而中國與RCEP國家首都之間的距離和是否有相鄰的邊界具有顯著的負向影響。（2）進口方面，班輪運輸連通性指標、政治穩定程度、金融自由度、中國及RCEP國家農產品競爭力、農業就業人數占比有利於貿易效率的提升，政治民主度和人均農業增加值不利於貿易效率的提升；出口方面，班輪運輸連通性指標和金融自由度有利於貿易效率的提升，政治民主度、中國及RCEP國家農產品競爭力、農業就業人數占比不利於貿易效率的提升。（3）中國與RCEP國家農產品進口貿易效率平均值由2000年的0.5006下降至2020年的0.2252，而出口貿易效率平均值由2000年0.314上升至2020年的0.6352，整體出口貿易效率高於進口貿易效率，且進出口貿易效率在國家間具有較大的異質性，存在很大的貿易潛力有待挖掘。
最後，本文為進一步提升中國與RCEP國家農產品貿易效率，挖掘雙邊農產品貿易潛力提出如下建議（1）抓住「21世紀海上絲綢之路」的發展契機，進一步加強中國和 RCEP國家交通運輸等基礎設施建設。（2）提高政府效率，重視金融風險。（3）重視RCEP國家異質性，對農產品進出口實行國別管理。（4）增強農產品貿易競爭力，平衡內需和外需協調發展。

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 서론 1
• 1. 연구 배경 및 목적 1
• 1）연구의 배경 1
• 2）연구의 목적 3
• 2. 연구 방법 및 내용 4
• 1）연구의 방법 4
• 2）연구의 내용 4
• 3）연구의 구성 5
• Ⅱ. 이론적 배경 및 선행연구 7
• 1. 이론적 배경 7
• 1) 잠재력과 무역 잠재력 개념 7
• 2) 자유무역 이론 8
• 3) 지역경제통합 이론 10
• 2. 선행연구의 검토 12
• 1) 자유무역지대에 관한 연구 12
• 2) 무역잠재력에 관한 연구 13
• 3) RCEP 국가무역에 관한 연구 17
• 4) 선행연구 평가 및 시사점 20
• Ⅲ. 중국과 RCEP 국가 농산물 무역 현황 21
• 1. 중국 농산물 무역 현황 21
• 1) 분석의 범위 21
• 2) 중국 농산물 무역 규모 분석 22
• 3) 중국 농산물 무역품목 구조분석 23
• 2. 중국과 RCEP 국가 농산물 무역 현황 27
• 1) 중국과 RCEP 국가 농산물 무역규모 분석 27
• 2) 중국과 RCEP 국가 농산물 무역품목 구조분석 28
• 3) 중국과 RCEP 국가 농산물 무역시장 구조분석 32
• Ⅳ. 중국과 RCEP 국가 농산물 무역 증가 원인 분석 34
• 1. 연구 방법 및 데이터 34
• 1) 연구 방법 34
• 2) 분석 자료 38
• 2. 실증분석 39
• 1) RCEP 국가 농산물 수출에 대한 중국의 수출증가 39
• 2) 중국 농산물 수출에 대한 RCEP 국가의 수출증가 43
• Ⅴ. 중국과 RCEP 국가 농산물 무역잠재력에 관한 연구 47
• 1. 이론모형 47
• 1) 확률적 변경 중력모형(Stochastic frontier gravity model) 47
• 2) 무역 비효율 모형(Trade Inefficiency Model) 48
• 2. 기본 모형 설정 및 자료수집 49
• 1) 확률적 변경 중력모형 설정 49
• 2) 무역 비효율 모형 설정 50
• 3) 자료수집 51
• 3. 실증분석 54
• 1) 확률적 변경 중력모형의 실증 결과 분석 54
• 2) 무역 비효율 모형 실증결과 분석 58
• 3) 무역효율성 및 무역잠재력 분석 60
• Ⅵ. 결론 66
• 1. 연구의 요약 66
• 2. 연구의 시사점 69
• 참고문헌 71
• 중국어 초록 77