Denial of History? Yasukuni Visits as Signaling

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Under what conditions would Japanese leaders visit the controversial Yasukuni Shrine and why? Previous studies have focused primarily on the domestic benefits and effects of such visits, claiming that leaders employ visits to follow their own conservative ideology and gain domestic political support. Given the harsh international criticism that tends to ensue, however, political leaders should also consider the cost and international effects of such visits. This study proposes three necessary conditions for such visits: a conservative ruling party, a government enjoying high popularity, and Japan's perception of a Chinese threat. With regard to the latter, a security threat from China has allowed Japan to use these visits as a credible signal of its resolve against China. Comparative analyses of Japanese cabinets after the mid-1980s support this argument.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 Wang, Zhixins, "Yasukuni, the War Dead and the Struggle for Japan’s Past" Columbia University Press 71-90, 2008

2 Organski, A.F.K., "World Politics" Knopf 1958

3 Berger, Thomas U., "War, Guilt, and World Politics After World War II" Cambridge University Press 2012

4 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, "Vice Foreign Minister Wang Yi expounds China’s solemn position on Yasukuni Shrine"

5 Abe, Shinzo, "Utsukushi Kuni e [Toward a beautiful country]" Bungei Shunju 2006

6 Komurata, Yoshiyuki, "US Government Stated Its Japanese Domestic Affair"

7 Singer, J. David, "Threat Perception and the Armament-Tension Dilemma" 2 (2): 90-105, 1958

8 Shibuichi, Daiki, "The Yasukuni Shrine Dispute and the Politics of Identity in Japan: Why All the Fuss?" 45 (45): 197-215, 2005

9 Ryu, Yongwook, "The Yasukuni Controversy : Divergent Perspectives from the Japanese Political Elite" 47 (47): 705-726, 2007

10 Mearsheimer, John J., "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics" Norton 2014

11 He, Yinan, "The Search for Reconciliation : Sino-Japanese and German–Polish Relations since World War II" Cambridge University Press 2009

12 Walt, Stephen M., "The Origins of Alliances" Cornell University Press 1987

13 Midford, Paul, "The Logic of Reassurance and Japan’s Grand Strategy" 11 (11): 36-40, 2002

14 Jervis, Robert, "The Logic of Images in International Relations" Princeton University Press 1970

15 Miller, S. A., "The Knives Are Out : Panetta Eviscerates Obama’s ‘Red Line’ Blunder on Syria"

16 Friedman, George, "The Coming War with Japan" St. Martin’s Press 1991

17 Lind, Jennifer M., "Sorry States : Apologies in International Politics" Cornell University Press 2008

18 Rose, Caroline, "Sino-Japanese Relations: Facing the Past, Looking to the Future?" Routledge 2005

19 Fearon, James, "Signaling Foreign Policy Interests : Tying Hands versus Sinking Costs" 41 (41): 68-90, 1997

20 Schneider, Carsten Q., "Set-Theoretic Methods for the Social Sciences. A Guide to Qualitative Comparative Analysis" Cambridge University Press 2012

21 Samuels, Richard J., "Securing Japan : Tokyo’s Grand Strategy and the Future of East Asia" Cornell University Press 2007

22 Liff, Adam P., "Racing Toward Tragedy? China’s Rise, Military Competition in the Asia Pacific, and the Security Dilemma" 39 (39): 52-91, 2014

23 Chijiwa, Yasuaki, "Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro’s Visits to Yasukuni Shrine : A Perspective from Japan’s Relations with the United States" 12 (12): 145-159, 2008

24 Cheung, Mong, "Political Survival and the Yasukuni Controversy in Sino-Japanese Relations" 23 (23): 527-548, 2010

25 Maeda, Naoto, "Opposing to the Worship Equal to Doing China’s Bidding"

26 Takahara, Akio, "Ni-Chu Kanke Shi 1972–2012 I Seiji [History of Japan–China relations 1972–2012, Vol. I: Politics]" University of Tokyo Press 2013

27 Kokubun, Ryosei, "Ni Chu Kankei Shi [History of Japan–China relations]" Yuhikaku 2014

28 Goertz, Gary, "Necessary Conditions : Theory, Methodology, and Applications" Rowman & Littlefield 2002

29 Dul, Jan, "Necessary Condition Analysis(NCA) : Logic and Methodology of ‘Necessary but Not Sufficient’ Causality" 19 (19): 10-52, 2016

30 Nakasone, Yasuhiro, "Nakasone Yasuhiro ga Kataru Sengo Nihon Gaikou [Japanese foreign policy since 1945: Yasuhiro Nakasone oral history]" Shinchosha 2012

31 Japan Times, "Keidanren Made Covert Trip to China"

32 Gartzke, Erik, "Kant We All Just get Along? Opportunity, Willingness, and the Origins of the Democratic Peace" 42 (42): 1-27, 1998

33 Hughes, Christopher W., "Japan’s ‘Resentful Realism’ and Balancing China’s Rise" 9 (9): 109-150, 2016

34 Lind, Jennifer M., "Japan’s Security Evolution" 788 : 1-9, 2016

35 Green, Michael J., "Japan’s Reluctant Realism : Foreign Policy Challenges in an Era of Uncertain Power" Palgrave 2003

36 Hughes, Christopher W., "Japan’s New Security Agenda" 49 (49): 157-176, 2007

37 Chanlett-Avery, Emma, "Japan–US Relations:Issues for Congress. Congressional Research Service Report" Government Printing Office 2013

38 BBC, "Japan Boosts Military Forces to Counter China"

39 Johnston, Alastair Iain, "Is China a Status Quo Power?" 27 (27): 5-56, 2003

40 Smith, Sheila A., "Intimate Rivals: Japanese Domestic Politics and a Rising China" Columbia University Press 2015

41 Johnston, Alastair Iain, "How New and Assertive is China’s New Assertiveness?" 37 (37): 7-48, 2013

42 Quackenbusch, Stephen L., "General Deterrence and International Conflict : Testing Perfect Deterrence Theory" 36 (36): 60-85, 2010

43 Hattori, Ryuji, "Gaikou Dokyumento : Rekishi Ninshiki [Diplomatic documents : historical awareness]" Iwanami Shoten 2015

44 Tanaka, Akihiko, "East Asia’s Haunted Present" Praeger Security International 119-141, 2008

45 Brooks, Stephen G., "Don’t Come Home, America : The Case Against Retrenchment" 37 (37): 7-8, 2013

46 Putnam, Robert D., "Diplomacy and Domestic Politics : the Logic of Two-Level Games" 42 (42): 427-460, 1988

47 George, Alexander L., "Deterrence in American Foreign Policy : Theory and Practice" Columbia University Press 1974

48 Morgan, Patrick M., "Deterrence : A Conceptual Analysis" Sage 1983

49 Ignatius, David, "David Ignatius’s Full Interview with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe"

50 Takahara, Akio, "China’s Ascent:Power, Security, and the Future of International Politics" Cornell University Press 218-237, 2008

51 Levy, Jack S., "China’s Ascent: Power, Security, and the Future of International Politics" Cornell University Press 11-33, 2008

52 Christiansen, Thomas J., "China, the US–Japan Alliance, and the Security Dilemma in East Asia" 23 (23): 52-55, 1999

53 Japan Times, "China Officially Labels Senkakus A ‘Core Interest’"

54 Sasaki, Tomonori, "China Eyes the Japanese Military : China’s Threat Perception of Japan since the 1980s" 203 : 560-573, 2010

55 Keohane, Robert O., "Changes in the International System" Westview 131-162, 1980

56 Mackie, J. L., "Causes and Conditions" 2 (2): 245-264, 1965

57 Ross, Robert S., "Balance of Power Politics and the Rise of China : Accommodation and Balancing in East Asia" 15 (15): 355-395, 2006

58 Abe, Shinzo, "Asia’s Democratic Security Diamond"

59 Lind, Jennifer M., "Apologies in International Politics" 18 (18): 517-556, 2009

60 Ishida, Atsushi, "Anzen Hosho towa Nanika [What is security?]" Iwanami Shoten 67-90, 2014

61 Tanaka, Akihiko, "Anzen Hosho [Security]" Yomiuri Shimbun 1997

62 Ministry of National Defense, "Announcement of the Aircraft Identification Rules for the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone of the PRC"

63 Snyder, Glenn H., "Alliance Politics" Cornell University Press 1997

64 Asahi Shimbun, "Abe Visit to Ishigaki, Okinawa to Encourage Japan Coastal Guards Who Police Senkakus"

65 Nishiyama, George, "Abe Visit to Controversial Japanese Shrine Draws Rare U.S. Criticism"