왜 복권은 바꾸려 하지 않는가?: 예상되는 사후가정사고와 후회의 역할 = The Roles of Anticipated Counterfactuals and Regret in Reluctance to Exchange Lottery Tickets

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The previous research found that people tend to be reluctant to exchange their lottery tickets even with greater compensation, and this tendency has been explained with illusion of control, self-serving bias, and decision-making errors. The present research proposed and examined that the anticipated counterfactual thoughts and anticipated regret would be a major psychological mechanism underlying the error-like tendency. Participants motivated by many grand prizes played a series of computer games and were given an opportunity to select a lottery ticket in the middle of the computer game. The possibility of anticipated counterfactual thoughts and regret were manipulated by whether participants were exposed to the lottery number of the selected ticket or that of the unselected ticket when they expected that the wining number would be known in the future. Also, participants in the control group expected that the winning number would not be known and then didn't expect counterfactuals and regret. As hypothesized, Participants who were exposed to the unselected lottery number exchanged their lottery tickets more and were slower in the decision making than those who were exposed to the selected one and who were in the control group. The amount of compensation for giving up their lottery tickets were not different across the experimental conditions. The results were consistent with the proposition of the roles of anticipated counterfactuals and regret in reluctance to exchange lottery tickets and discussed with the functional perspective of anticipated affects in decision-making processes.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

사람들은 흔히 같은 당첨확률인데도 불구하고 자신의 복권을 바꾸려하지 않고, 자신의 복권에 대한 실제의 가치보다 더 큰 보상을 요구한다. 이러한 현상을 사회심리학자들은 자기고양적 동기와 착각적 자기통제감으로 설명하거나 행동보다는 비행동을 선호하는 성향과 관련지어 왔다. 본 연구는 이러한 현상에서 예상되는 부정적 감정(특히 후회)과 이 감정을 최소화시키려는 동기역할을 조사하였다. 실험참가자들은 기본적으로 컴퓨터게임 과제를 수행하는 중간에 복권을 선택하였고 나중에 선택하지 않았던 다른 복권으로 교환할 기회가 주어졌다. 독립변수는 처음 복권을 선택할 때 선택복권 또는 비선택복권 중에 어떤 번호에 노출되는가를 처치하였고, 종속변수로 후에 복권을 교환하는가 여부와 행동결정 반응시간, 그리고 복권포기의 기대 보상크기를 측정하였다. 연구가설과 일관되게, 실험참가자들은 자신의 복권번호에 노출되었을 때보다 선택하지 않았던 번호에 노출되었을 때 더 복권을 교환하려고 하였고 그 행동결정 반응도 느렸지만, 복권포기를 위한 기대보상의 크기에서는 차이가 없었다. 이러한 결과는 의사결정과정에서 예상되는 후회와 이를 최소화하려는 동기가 역기능적 결과를 가져올 수 있음을 확인하였다. 본 연구의 결과를 행동회피편향과 현상유지편향, 의사결정오류와 같은 인간의 의사결정회피성향을 설명하는 다양한 심리기제의 관점에서 논의하였다.

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