도심지에서 RDD 및 IND수단에 의한 핵테러 발생시 피해 영향 평가 = Studies on Damage Effects Assessment Occurred Nuclear Terrorism by means of RDD & IND in the Downtown

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In this study, the nucleus by selecting a scenario occurring radioactivity was carried out nuclear terrorism. Terrorist activity occurs during engineering assessment. First nucleus. Radioactivity terrorism occurs scenarios chosen "The were selected to downtown Seoul in terrorism risk to maximize the economic impact from the high city to the target are a, terrorist methods are terrorists using high radiation dispersal device, most terrorist potential(radiological terrorism, RDD) and attacks the most affected large ensuite with explosive devices (nuclear Terrorism, was based on IND), if terror of radioactivity means an explosion truck was broken down if one of the two bags. The second core. Engineering assessment in the event of radiological terrorism "using the HotSpot computer code was carried out impact analysis of nuclearengineering, radiationterrorism. If the number of deaths of radioactive nuclear terrorism Looking at the engineering impact analysis of terrorist activity was evaluated by the level of 1-75 people, depending on the scenario, in the case of nuclear terrorism it was evaluated in35,341 people 241,640people. Therefore, the nuclear when the terrorist scene hit by gamma ray s or subatomic particle scintillation detector on the hill, against nuclear terrorism detection systems and nuclear terrorism are written directly into electrical pulses that can help to identify the radio active radioactive contamination range forecasting and delivery system It should be ensured. It is also necessary defensive strategies such as crisis management communications with the media and public relations. In the future, econometric models, such as the development of along-term study t o allow for more precise analysis of these impacts are comprehensive and likely needed.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구에서는 핵․방사능테러 발생 시나리오를 선정하여 핵․방사능테러 발생 시 공학적 영향 평가를 수행하였다. 첫째 핵․방사능테러 발생 시나리오 선정”에서는 테러위험도가 높은 도시 중에서 경제적 영향을 극대화할 수 있는 서울 도심을 대상 지역으로 선정하였으며, 테러방법으로는 가장 테러가능성이 높은 방사능분산장치를 이용한 테러(방사능테러, RDD)와 가장 영향이 큰 간이핵폭발장치를 이용한 테러(핵테러, IND)를 기준으로 하였으며, 방사능테러의 경우 폭발 수단을 트럭, 가방으로 한 2가지의 경우로 세분화하였다. 둘째 핵․방사능테러 발생 시 공학적 영향 평가”에서는 Hot Spot 전산코드를 사용하여 핵·방사능테러의 공학적 영향 분석을 수행하였다. 핵·방사능테러의 공학적 영향 분석을 살펴보면 방사능 테러의 경우 사망자 수는 시나리오에 따라 1~75명 수준으로 평가되었으며, 핵테러의 경우35,341명~241,640명으로 평가되었다. 따라서 핵 테러 현장에서 감마선 또는 양원 입자가 섬광 검출기에 부딪힐 때, 방사능을 규명하는데 도움을 줄 수 있는 전기적 펄스로 직접 기록되는 핵 테러 탐지 체계와 핵테러를 대비한 방사능 오염범위 예측 및 전달시스템을 확보하여야 한다. 또한 언론과 홍보를 통한 위기관리 커뮤니케이션 등의 방어 전략이 필요하다. 향후, 이러한 영향을 보다 종합적이고 정밀하게 분석할 수 있도록 하기 위한 계량경제모형 개발 등 중장기적인 연구가 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

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