아동학대 재발생의 유형과 요인에 대한 다변량 생존분석 = Multivariate Survival Analysis for Rates and Correlates of the Child Maltreatment Recurrence

국문 초록 (Abstract)

아동학대는 위급성 뿐만 아니라 지속성과 반복성을 띄고 있기 때문에 수많은 아동들이 외부로 노출되지 않은 채 끊임없이 반복학대의 위험성에 처해 있다. 따라서 아동학대의 반복고리를 끊는 것이 아동학대를 예방하는 선결과제이다. 본 연구는 구득 가능한 국외 자료를 이용하여 아동학대 학계에서 이제까지 다루어지지 않았던 아동학대 재발생의 비율과 빈도, 시간적 확률분포 유형, 그리고 재발생과 관련성이 있는 요인을 분석하였다. 아동학대의 재신고율은 37% 수준 이상으로 상당히 심각한 양상을 보여준다. 시간적 확률분포를 도식화해 보면 연구기간 5년 5개월 동안 첫 3~5개월째가 가장 높은 발생시기로 나타났는데 이는 학대가 신고된 후 신속한 초기개입이 있어야 됨을 입증해 주는 것이다. 정신병리학적 이론과 사회학적 이론을 통합한 생태학적 모델을 분석틀로 활용하여 아동특성과 가족특성을 선정하여 아동의 연령, 아동의 성, 인종, 가족유형, 가족규모를 설명변수로 투입하였다. 사례특성인 초기사례의 학대유형과 판정여부를 통제하였을 때, 대부분의 설명변수들이 아동학대 재발생에 통계적으로 유의미한 영향을 가지고 있음이 발견되었다. 아동학대 재발생 요인분석의 계량분석방법으로는 다변량생존분석법을 활용하였다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Child maltreatment is a social problem that affects a significant number of children every year. Many of the children who were maltreated grow into adults with serious health, mental, and emotional problems. Children who experience multiple episodes of maltreatment are more likely to have short-term and long-term negative consequences than those who experience a single incident of maltreatment. Prior studies have not identified epidemiological characteristics of the child maltreatment such as recurrence. The primary objective of this study is to examine rates, patterns, and correlates of child maltreatment recurrence using survival analysis method. o answer the research questions, this study analyzed a sample of 25,504 families who were followed up to have experienced maltreatment recurrence covering 5.4 years. The first recurrence rate was 37.0% over the study period. The risk of child maltreatment recurrence (hazard rate) was highest for the third, fourth, and fifth month. This means that early intervention is crucial for restraining child maltreatment recurrence. This study selected child and family characteristics from an ecological perspective to examine correlates associated with child maltreatment recurrence. Study results show that age of child victim, race/ethnicity, family structure, and number of dependent children in the home significantly predicted the risk of child maltreatment recurrence when controlling for abuse type and substantiation at initial report. Study results will help to guide unprecedented research areas for scholars and to develop successful interventions to restrain chronic child maltreatment.

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