탄소 배출이 국제무역에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 : 중국 성급 지역을 중심으로 = A Study on Effect of CO2 Emissions on International Trade; Focusing on China’s Provincial Regions

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Climate warming has become one of the most serious and challenging problems for human beings. It may not only force a group of people to leave their homes for generations, but also cause a global food crisis and cause intergenerational inequality in human development. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) believes that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, mainly CO2, are the main causes of global warming since the mid-20th century.
Anthropogenic CO2 emissions are closely related to the mode of economic development with high energy consumption and high consumption. International trade is an important part of economic development. For the sake of global sustainable development, it is necessary for countries(regions) in the world to promote the coordinated development between Controlling CO2 emissions and developing international trade.
China is a big developing country ‘the first in the world in two aspects’ with unbalanced provincial area development. In 2018, both CO2 emissions and international trade volume ranked first in the world. This brings a ‘dilemma’ to the sustainable development of the world: if CO2 emission is reduced according to the existing development model, the international trade volume will be reduced, but the global welfare of low-cost consumption ‘made in China’ of other countries will be damaged; if the CO2 emission is not reduced, the risk of climate warming will be increased and the global environmental quality will be damaged. Therefore, it is of great significance not only for China's sustainable development, but also for the world's sustainable development to explore the impact effect of China's provincial CO2 emissions on international trade. Based on this, the main research contents of this paper are as follows:
First, this paper constructs a framework of the effect of CO2 emissions on international trade. Based on the literature review of low carbon economy theory, new trade theory and regional coordinated development theory, this paper constructs a TSTX framework analysis to study the effect of CO2 emissions on international trade by using index decomposition method. That is to say, international trade (T) changes with the scale effect (S), technology effect (T) and trade dependence effect(X) of CO2 emissions. The global empirical results show that the scale effect changes in an inverted ‘U’ shape, the technological effect changes in a ‘V’ shape, and the export dependence effect change in a ‘J’ shape.
Second, TSTX is used to analyze the respective characteristics and comprehensive performance of the three impact effects of provincial areas in China. From the perspective of practice, since China's accession to the WTO, international trade has been developing rapidly as a whole. At the same time, the gap among provincial areas is also widening, and the phenomenon of spatial agglomeration appears. The impact effect was analyzed by using two dimensions of panel data and spatial data. The results of panel data show that China needs to further promote the process of globalization in order to better coordinate the relationship between CO2 emissions and international trade. The results of spatial data show that the neighboring provincial areas have a restrictive effect on the local international trade.
Finally, the effect is applied to China's low-carbon international trade policy. In the past, China took the road of high carbon international trade. In the future, China needs to develop low-carbon international trade, among which the key is to improve the comparative carbon productivity of international trade in provincial areas, so as to shoulder China's world responsibility.
The main contributions are 1) Building TSTX model which is a ‘bridge’ between low-carbon economics and international trade economics, 2) Building ECCP model which is the evaluation index of low-carbon international trade level. The main task of future research is to explore the mechanism of effects.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제 1 장 서론 1
• 제 1 절 연구 배경 및 목적 1
• 1. 연구 배경 1
• 2. 연구 목적 5
• 제 2 절 연구 내용 및 방법 6
• 1. 연구 내용 6
• 2. 연구 방법 8
• 3. 연구 의의 12
• 제 2 장 이론적 기초 및 선행연구 14
• 제 1 절 이론적 기초 14
• 1. 저탄소 경제 이론 15
• 2. 신무역 이론 17
• 3. 지역 공동발전 이론 19
• 제 2 절 선행 연구 21
• 1. 국제무역과 내재된 탄소의 유동성 22
• 2. 국제무역 제재와 저탄소 발전 23
• 3. 국제무역과 국가 간 저탄소 기술 이전 25
• 4. 중국 탄소 배출과 국제 무역의 관계 25
• 제 3 장 TSTX 연구 모형 27
• 제 1 절 TSTX 모형 개발 27
• 1. 국제무역 발전 단계 27
• 2. TSTX 모형 개발 방법 29
• 3. TSTX 모형 설명 32
• 제 2 절 TSTX 모형의 글로벌 곡선 변화 35
• 1. 스케일 효과 곡선: 역‘U’형 변화 35
• 2. 기술 효과 곡선: ‘V’형 변화 38
• 3. 수출의존도 효과 곡선: ‘J’형 변화 42
• 제 4 장 중국 성급 지역의 TSTX 모형 실증 분석 45
• 제 1 절 TSTX 모형의 부분별 변화 특징 45
• 1. 국제무역(T)의 변화 특징 45
• 2. 스케일 효과(S)의 변화 특징 51
• 3. 기술 효과(T)의 변화 특징 54
• 4. 수출의존도 효과(X)의 변화 특징 57
• 제 2 절 TSTX 모형의 종합 분석 61
• 1. 패널 종합 분석 61
• 2. 공간 종합 분석 66
• 제 5 장 TSTX 모형 기반 저탄소 국제무역 및 정책 시사점 69
• 제 1 절 중국 저탄소 국제무역 발전 69
• 1. 저탄소 국제무역의 의의 69
• 2. 중국 저탄소 국제무역 수준의 글로벌 비교 72
• 3. 중국 성급 지역 저탄소 국제무역에 대한 평가 73
• 제 2 절 중국 지역별 저탄소 국제무역 성장 촉진 정책 80
• 1. 지역유형 분류 80
• 2. 정책 설계 84
• 3. 정책 선택 88
• 4. 정책 도구 96
• 제 6 장 결론 98
• 제 1 절 연구의 요약 98
• 제 2 절 연구의 한계 및 향후 연구방향 102
• 참고문헌 105