Tipping the Balance? China’s PLA Northern Theater Command and the Korean Peninsula

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In the event of a conflict or contingency on the Korean Peninsula, one of the five People’s Liberation Army (PLA) theater commands is responsible for implementing China’s military strategy and operations in Korea—the Northern Theater Command (NTC). What capabilities does China deploy to the NTC? How does it compare to the other theater commands? And do NTC’s military capabilities change the existing balance of power on the Korean Peninsula? Using the most up-to-date data, this paper offers, first, a theater-level comparative analysis of the PLA and, second, a quantitative assessment of how China’s NTC capabilities affect the military balance of power between North Korea on the one hand, and South Korea and the U.S. Forces Korea on the other. Of PLA’s five theater commands, the paper finds that the NTC has maintained the largest and heaviest ground force, the largest air force, and the second most powerful naval fleet. When NTC military capabilities are added to the existing military balance between North Korean forces and the U.S.– South Korean alliance forces, the United States and South Korea’s air supremacy is challenged and naval dominance is overturned. This is especially the case in the West Sea of Korea, the Yellow Sea.

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