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    KCI등재 SCOPUS

    Kazakhstan’s January 2022 Crisis: Representations by National Experts via Social Media

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    https://www.riss.kr/link?id=A109441033

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    다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract) kakao i 다국어 번역

    This article aims at reconstructing the representations of the 2022 January crisis developed by Kazakhstani political analysts via social media. The research methodology seeks to combine quantitative and qualitative methods by assessing these representations by use of critical discourse analysis of social media posts by Kazakhstani political analysts extracted and processed by the use of API and PolyAnalysts based on marker words. The research significance lies in the unique situation of regime instability potentially providing the expert community with the chance to speak up openly. However, it is concluded that most analysts reproduced the official discourse that is in line with the discourses developed in non-democratic context. Thus, the dominant expert discourse of the January crisis is rather homogenous and relies on the dichotomies of “the old” versus “the new” as well as “the weak” versus “the strong.” As a result, the general picture by Kazakhstani political analysts looks more like a political myth about the birth of a “new Kazakhstan” than a reconstruction of the causes, actors and consequences of the January crisis. It implies that the expert community prefers controlled evolution of the state regime rather than grass roots initiated changes.
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    This article aims at reconstructing the representations of the 2022 January crisis developed by Kazakhstani political analysts via social media. The research methodology seeks to combine quantitative and qualitative methods by assessing these represen...

    This article aims at reconstructing the representations of the 2022 January crisis developed by Kazakhstani political analysts via social media. The research methodology seeks to combine quantitative and qualitative methods by assessing these representations by use of critical discourse analysis of social media posts by Kazakhstani political analysts extracted and processed by the use of API and PolyAnalysts based on marker words. The research significance lies in the unique situation of regime instability potentially providing the expert community with the chance to speak up openly. However, it is concluded that most analysts reproduced the official discourse that is in line with the discourses developed in non-democratic context. Thus, the dominant expert discourse of the January crisis is rather homogenous and relies on the dichotomies of “the old” versus “the new” as well as “the weak” versus “the strong.” As a result, the general picture by Kazakhstani political analysts looks more like a political myth about the birth of a “new Kazakhstan” than a reconstruction of the causes, actors and consequences of the January crisis. It implies that the expert community prefers controlled evolution of the state regime rather than grass roots initiated changes.

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    참고문헌 (Reference)

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    2 Kaliyev, T., "Vyzovy dlja Tokaeva [challenges to Tokayev]"

    3 Ashimbayev, D., "Vspomnilos’, kak tri goda nazad odin taksist vozmushchalsia [It came to my mind how annoyed one taxi driver was three years ago]"

    4 Abishev, G., "Vopros o peredache dolzhnosti predsedatelia sovbeza RK byl reshen na khodu [The question of the RK security council chairmanship transfer was resolved along the way]"

    5 Ashimbayev, D., "V pravitel’stve stalo bol’she na odnogo vice-prem’era [There has become one more vice-minister in the government]"

    6 Ashmbayev, D., "V poslednee vremya poyavilos’ nemalo figure i figurochek, kotorye ochen’ khotiat, chtoby Kazakhstan srochno possorilsya s Rossiei [Recently, a number of figures and figurines have emerged who want Kazakhstan to get into a quarrel with Russia as soon as possible]"

    7 Abishev, G, "V mnogochislennyh razgovorah s Putinym rechi o vozmozhnom dolge ne bylo [There was no possible debt mentioned in numerous talks to Putin]"

    8 Karin, E., "V chem zakliuchaetsa kliuchevoy posyl vcherashnego vystuplenia glavy gosudarstva? [What is the key message of yesterday’s speech by the head of state?]"

    9 Nursha, A., "V Almaty podkluchili internet [Internet has been turned on in Almaty]"

    10 Kaliyev, T., "Umestna li v novom Kazahstane staraya partia? [Is the old party appropriate in the new Kazakhstan?]"

    1 Kaliyev, T, "Vyzovy novomu Kazahstanu [challenges to new Kazakhstan]"

    2 Kaliyev, T., "Vyzovy dlja Tokaeva [challenges to Tokayev]"

    3 Ashimbayev, D., "Vspomnilos’, kak tri goda nazad odin taksist vozmushchalsia [It came to my mind how annoyed one taxi driver was three years ago]"

    4 Abishev, G., "Vopros o peredache dolzhnosti predsedatelia sovbeza RK byl reshen na khodu [The question of the RK security council chairmanship transfer was resolved along the way]"

    5 Ashimbayev, D., "V pravitel’stve stalo bol’she na odnogo vice-prem’era [There has become one more vice-minister in the government]"

    6 Ashmbayev, D., "V poslednee vremya poyavilos’ nemalo figure i figurochek, kotorye ochen’ khotiat, chtoby Kazakhstan srochno possorilsya s Rossiei [Recently, a number of figures and figurines have emerged who want Kazakhstan to get into a quarrel with Russia as soon as possible]"

    7 Abishev, G, "V mnogochislennyh razgovorah s Putinym rechi o vozmozhnom dolge ne bylo [There was no possible debt mentioned in numerous talks to Putin]"

    8 Karin, E., "V chem zakliuchaetsa kliuchevoy posyl vcherashnego vystuplenia glavy gosudarstva? [What is the key message of yesterday’s speech by the head of state?]"

    9 Nursha, A., "V Almaty podkluchili internet [Internet has been turned on in Almaty]"

    10 Kaliyev, T., "Umestna li v novom Kazahstane staraya partia? [Is the old party appropriate in the new Kazakhstan?]"

    11 Kaliyev, T., "Udastsia li izmenit’ partiyu vlasti? [Will the attempts to change the ruling party succeed?]"

    12 du Boulay, S., "Theorizing central Asian politics: The state, ideology and power" Palgrave Macmillan 17-42, 2019

    13 Kudaibergenova, D. T., "The use and abuse of postcolonial discourses in post-independent Kazakhstan" 68 (68): 917-935, 2016

    14 Foucault, M., "The history of sexuality volume I: An introduction" Pantheon Books 1978

    15 Tokayev, K.-J., "State-of-the-Nation address by president of the republic of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev"

    16 Ashimbayev, D., "Skladyvaetsya vpechatlenie, chto ochen’ mnogie zainteresovany v tom, chtoby vydat’uchastnikov massovykh besporyadkov v Almaty i riade drugikh regionov za mirnykh protestuyushchikh [There is an impression that there are many who are interested in passing off the participants of mass riots in Almaty and a number of other regions as peaceful protesters]"

    17 Bokaev, S., "Schitayu, chto ministr vnutrennikh del E. Turgumbaev I gueneralniy prokuror G. Nurdauletov dolzhny uyti v otstavku [I believe that Minister of internal Affairs E. Turgumbaev and Attorney General G. Nurdauletov should resign]"

    18 Abishev, G, "Rossiyane pochemu tak iarostno atakuyut novogo ministra informatsii Umarova? [Why do Russians attack the new minister of information Umarov so ferociously?]"

    19 Bokaev, S., "Reaktsia novogo presidenta Tokayeva… [The reaction of the new President Tokayev…]"

    20 Kaliyev, T., "Protest ili terror? [Protest or terror?]"

    21 Abishev, G., "Privlechenie ODKB - jeto skoree signal o tom, chto strany-sojuzniki podderzhivajut dejstvujushhij konstitucionnyj rezhim, a ne teh, kto zhelaet ego sverzhenija [The involvement of the CSTO is more a sign of support of the current constitutional regime by the allies but not by those who would like to withdraw it]"

    22 Abishev, G., "Predstavliaetsia, chto razgovory o vozmozhnykh sanktsiiakhv otnoshenii Kazakhstana so storony Velikobritanii za sotrudnichestvo s Rossiei v kakom-to smysle mogut byt’I na ruku Astane [It appears that discussions about possible British sanctions against Kazakhstan for its cooperation with Russia might in some sense play into Astana’s hands]"

    23 Kaliyev, T., "Posle putcha… [After the putsch…]"

    24 Isaacs, R., "Political opposition in authoritarianism: Exit, voice and loyalty in Kazakhstan" Palgrave Macmillan 2022

    25 Abishev, G., "Po slovam prezidenta Tokaeva, vokrug Ak-Ordy nachali sobirat’sya terroristicheskie gruppy, gotovye k shturmu [In president Tokayev’s words, terrorist groups ready for assault began to amass around Ak-Orda]"

    26 Sarym, A, "Po kazazhstanskoy rezolutsii Evroparlamenta I otvetu MIDa RK [about the Kazakhtan resolution of the European parliament and the response of the ministry of foreign affairs of the republic of Kazakhstan]"

    27 Nursha,A., "Obrashhenie vlastej Kazahstana za pomoshh’ju v ODKB budet bol’shoj politicheskoj oshibkoj [Address to the CSTO by Kazakhstani authorities will be a great political mistake]"

    28 Ashimbayev, D., "O novom kazahstane i vtoroj respublike [on new Kazakhstan and the second republic]"

    29 Karin, E., "O novom Kazahstane i vtoroj respublike [on the new Kazakhstan and the second republic]"

    30 Bokaev, S., "Nurlan Nigmatulin, Baurzhan Baibek and marat Beketaev yavliaiutsa… [Nurlan Nigmatulin, Baurzhan Baibek and marat Beketaev are…]"

    31 Kabuldinov, Z., "Novomu kazahstanu – novoe poslanie prezidenta [the new presidential message to new Kazakhstan]"

    32 Abishev, G., "Nesmotrja na obrashhenie v ODKB, vsju osnovnuju tjazhjoluju rabotu vsjo zhe dolzhny sdelat’ kazahstanskie oficery [Despite the address to the CSTO, Kazakhstani officers are to conduct the main difficult work]"

    33 Yedilov, E., "Nepravil’no, chto “Agashki”, kotorym chut’ li ne 70 let, “do sikh por derzhatsia za svoi kreslsa” [It is wrong that “Agashki” who are almost 70 still cling to their positions]"

    34 Ashimbayev, D., "Mnogie zadayutsia voprosom o roli rukovodstva KNB v etikh sobytiiakh [Many people wonder about the role of the NSC leadership in these events]"

    35 Institute of Applied Research, "Mission"

    36 Kabuldinov, Z., "Mir i soglasie v Kazakhstane – prevyshe vsego! [Peace and unity in Kazakhstan are above all]"

    37 Libman, A., "Military intervention as a spectacle? Authoritarian regionalism and protests in Kazakhstan" 99 (99): 1293-1312, 2023

    38 Ashimbayev, D., "Mezhdunarodnaia obshchestvenost’”uporno vidit v boevikakh isklyuchitel’no “mirnykh protestuyushchikh [The “international public” obstinately sees the militants exclusively as “peaceful protesters”]"

    39 J¨ager, S., "Methods of critical discourse analysis" Sage 32-62, 2001

    40 Kudaibergenova, D, "Making sense of the January 2022 protests in Kazakhstan: Failing legitimacy, culture of protests, and elite readjustments"

    41 Cornell, S., "Learning from Kazakhstan’s January crisis"

    42 J¨ager, S., "Kritische Diskursanalyse: eine Einführung" DISS Verlag 1993

    43 Ashimbayev, D., "Kot i evroparlament [A cat and the European parliament]"

    44 Socor, V., "Kazakhstan: An island of stability in a turbulent region" Institute for Security and Development Policy

    45 Kazinform, "Kassym-Zhomart Tokaev vystupil s obrashcheniem k narodu Kazakhstana [Kassym-Jomart Tokayev addresses the people of Kazakhstan]" Kazinform News Agency

    46 Abishev, G., "Kasatelno Togo, kak organizovanno protestnaya volna zakhlestnula goroda Kazakhstana [Regarding the question of how the protest wave swept the cities of Kazakhstan in an organized way]"

    47 Karin, E, "Kak uzhe neodnokratno govorilos’, missiia ODKB iskluchitel’no mirotvorcheskaia [As has already been said many times, the CSTO mission is exclusively peacekeeping]"

    48 Interfax, "KNB Kazakhstana soobshchil, chto plemyannik Nazarbaeva prodolzhaet rabotat’ v spetssluzhbe [NSC of Kazakhstan informs that Nazarbayev’s nephew continues to work in the special service]" Interfax News Agency

    49 Ashimbayev, D., "K voprosu o sem’e pervogo prezidenta [On the question of the first president’s family]"

    50 Ashimbayev, D., "Itak, Kassym-Zhomart Tokaev vzjal na sebja vsju polnotu vlasti [Thus, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev took the entire power]"

    51 Ashimbayev, D., "Hochetsja napomnit’, chto banditskoterroristicheskoe napadenie v janvare s.g. bylo otrazheno pod rukovodstvom Tokaeva pri polnoj podderzhke Nazarbaeva, kotoryj peredal emu vse brazdy pravlenija [I would like to remind that the attack by bandits and terrorists in January was dealt with under Tokayev presidency and supported by Nazarbayev who provided the power to him]"

    52 Tengrinews, "Gossekretar’ Erlan Karin raz’iasnil znachenie termina “vtoraia respublika” [state secretary Erlan Karin explains the meaning of the term “the second republic”]" Tengrinews Agency

    53 Schr ¨oter, M., "Exploring silence and absence in discourse: Empirical approaches" Palgrave Macmillan 2018

    54 Ashimbayev, D., "Diskussija o “mirnom haraktere”Janvarskih sobytij ne utihaet [There are still debates developed on the ‘peaceful’ mode of January events]"

    55 Jørgensen, M., "Discourse analysis as theory and method" Sage Publications 2002

    56 J¨ager, S., "Das Wuchern der Diskurse. Perspektiven der Diskursanalyse Foucaults" Campus Verlag 136-147, 1999

    57 von Soest, Ch., "Comparing Legitimation Strategies in Post-Soviet Countries. In Comparing Legitimation Strategies in Post-Soviet Countries" Palgrave Macmillan 18-46, 2015

    58 Nursha, A., "Chto my poluchili v suhom ostatke posle Janvar’skih sobytij? [What have we got left after January events?"

    59 Ashimbayev, D., "Byudzhet KNB sostavlial v 2015 godu [soglasno zakonu] 163 mlrd. Tenge [The NSC budget in 2015 amounted to 163 billion Tenge [according to the law]"

    60 Thibault, H., "A revolt in the steppe: Understanding Kazakhstan’s January events of 2022" Springer 79-100, 2022

    61 Sarym, A, "162 cheloveka ili 0,001% naselenia vladeyut 55% bogatstva Kazahstana [162 people or 0.001% of the population own 55% of Kazakhstan’s wealth]"

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