문화유사성과 군사충돌의 상호성에 관한 고찰 = Cultural Similarities and Militarized Conflicts : Focusing on Reciprocal Causation

국문 초록 (Abstract)

국가 간 군사충돌(militarized conflicts)의 원인에 관한 국제정치학의 논의는 현실주의와 자유주의로 대표되는 지배적 패러다임을 중심으로 진행되어 왔다. 국력의 균형(balance of power), 군사동맹(militarized alliance) 체결 여부를 강조하는 현실주의, 민주주의 수준(democracy level)과 경제적 상호의존(economic interdependence)을 강조하는 자유주의 논의가 그것이다. 본 연구는 이러한 현실주의, 자유주의 논의와 함께, 문화요인(cultural factors)이 군사분쟁에 미치는 영향을 계량 방법으로 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 냉전의 종결 이후, 군사분쟁 연구에서 문화 패러다임의 중요성에 관한 이론적 논의가 “문명의 충돌(The Clash of Civilizations)”이라는 헌팅턴(Huntington 1993, 1996)의 주장을 중심으로, 후쿠야마(Fukuyama 1989, 1992, 역사의 종언 “The End of History”), 뮐러(Müller 1998, 문명의 공존 “Das Zusammenleben der Kulturen”)를 비롯하여 활발하게 진행되고 있다. 본 연구는 다양한 문화요인이 국가 간 군사적 긴장･갈등에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 계량연구이며, 관련 주제의 선행연구와의 차이점으로 다음을 강조한다. 첫째, 문화요인이 군사분쟁에 미치는 영향에 대한 분석과 함께 (선행연구 논의), 군사분쟁이 문화요인에 미치는 영향을 함께 고려한 상호인과성(simultaneity, two-way causation)을 중심으로 관련 논의를 분석하였다. 둘째, 문화요인 변수 측정을 위한 데이터와 측정방법의 다양화이다. 선행연구에서 주로 사용한 문명 권 변수를 포함하여, 인종유사성, 종교유사성, 언어유사성으로 대표되는 다양한 문화요인이 군사분쟁에 미치는 영향을 포괄적으로 검증하였다. 본 연구의 분석 결과, 국가 간 군사분쟁의 발발은 문화 유사성을 저해하는 결과와 함께, 국가 간 문화 비유사성이 군사분쟁의 발발을 일으킨다는 (문명권 간 충돌현상) 헌팅턴의 문명충돌론의 주장이 계량적으로 검증되지 않음이 드러나고 있다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

International relations research on factors affecting the onset of militarized conflicts has focused on the major paradigms of realism and liberalism, including the power balance and militarized alliance of realism (balance of power, alliance theories) and the democracy levels and economic interdependence of liberalism (democratic peace, liberal peace theories). However, growing interest has considered cultural factors for understanding international relations and international conflicts. This study applies this cultural paradigm of understanding international relations to studies of militarized conflicts. Specifically, this study empirically examines the effect of cultural similarities on the onset of militarized conflicts and aims to contribute to existing related studies in two ways. First, unlike previous studies assessing the effect of cultural factors on militarized conflicts (one-way causation), this study examines the effects by focusing on the simultaneous causation between the two factors (two-way causation); second, unlike previous work on using the civilizations categories (Huntington 1993, 1996; and others) as the data and variable measurements for cultural aspects, this study uses Huntington and others’ civilizations data and measurement to examine cultural factors as well as other data and measurements of ethnic, religious, and linguistic similarities. Our findings indicate that not only do cultural similarities positively affect the onset of militarized conflicts, but the onset of conflicts also negatively affect cultural similarities among states, thereby demonstrating simultaneous causations between the two aspects.

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