Protesting authoritarianism : interactions between ICTs and political opportunity structures

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

What accounts for variations in protests under authoritarian rule? In approaching this puzzle, this thesis focuses on the interactive relationship between the proliferation of information and communication technologies (ICTs) and the opening of political opportunity structures. This thesis suggests that ICTs’ effects on protests are likely ambiguous due to the tensions that exist between the protest-facilitating and protest-hindering aspects of ICTs. As political opportunity structures become more open, however, the diffusion of ICTs is expected to have a more significant and positive impact on protests. In this study, political opportunity structures—the extent to which traits of the regime and its institutions facilitate or hinder collective action—are considered to be more open when 1) national elections are held (openly and competitively) and 2) the state enforces less restrictions on political participation. A series of negative binomial regression tests conducted using a dataset of 103 authoritarian countries (1990–2017) examines this argument. As hypothesized, there is inconsistent evidence for the claim that the diffusion of ICTs in itself is a significant and positive determinant of protests. ICTs are found to affect protests significantly more positively when elections are held and there is less participatory regulation. By demonstrating how the influence of ICTs’ diffusion on protests varies according to these moderating factors, this article connects and applies the relational resources and political opportunity approaches from social movement literature to the study of protesting authoritarianism.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract i
• Table of Contents ii
• List of Figures iv
• List of Tables v
• Chapter 1: The Puzzle of Protesting Authoritarianism 1
• 1.1. The Puzzle and Argument 1
• 1.2. Studies of Authoritarianism and Protests 8
• 1.3. Interactive Effects on Protesting Authoritarianism: ICTs and Political Opportunity Structures 10
• 1.4. Research Design and Methods 13
• 1.5. Overview 15
• Chapter 2: A Theory of Protesting Authoritarianism: Interactions between ICTs and Political Opportunity Structures 16
• 2.1. Social Movements and Authoritarianism 16
• 2.2. Anti-Government Protests and Authoritarianism 21
• 2.3. The Conundrum of Protests under Authoritarian Rule 29
• 2.4. Interactions between ICTs and Political Opportunity Structures under Authoritarian Rule 36
• 2.5. Conclusion 50
• Chapter 3: Internet and Mobile Phone Diffusion, Elections, and Participatory Regulation 52
• 3.1. Modeling Strategy 52
• 3.2. Data and Variables 54
• 3.3. Empirical Results 63
• 3.4. Conclusion 72
• Chapter 4: An Examination of Alternative Explanations 73
• 4.1. The Potential Role of Grievances 73
• 4.2. Skepticism toward the Interactive Effects between ICTs and Political Opportunity Structures 79
• 4.3. Repressive Technology 79
• 4.4. An Alternative Method for Quantifying Elections 82
• 4.5. Distorted Results Driven by Influential Points 82
• 4.6. An Alternative Method for Quantifying Protesting Authoritarianism: Hazard of Protest Participation 87
• 4.7. Conclusion 94
• Chapter 5: Beyond Protesting Authoritarianism 95
• 5.1. Web Revolutions or a New Era of Digital Authoritarianism 95
• 5.2. ICTs and Protesting in Democracies 102
• Appendix 105
• Bibliography 108