코로나19가 사회적 배제에 미치는 영향: 연령층에 따른 통제 단절적 시계열 분석을 중심으로 = The Impact of COVID-19 on Social Exclusion: Focusing on the Controlled Interrupted Time-Series by Age Group

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Although the COVID-19 pandemic has officially ended, its social repercussions persist. Building on this concern, this study examines age-group differences in the short- and long-term impacts of COVID-19 on social exclusion. Using data from Waves 11–19 (2016–2024) of the Korea Welfare Panel Study, we apply a controlled interrupted time-series design stratified by age group (older adults vs. young and middle-aged adults). Social exclusion is measured using fuzzy-set theory, with indicator weights derived from each item’s coefficient of variation and inter-item correlations to capture the multidimensional nature of social exclusion. The results indicate that the COVID-19 outbreak temporarily narrowed the gap in social exclusion between age groups in the short term, and decelerated the widening of this gap in the long term. However, this pattern does not reflect an alleviation of social exclusion among older adults. Rather, it is interpreted as a 'downward leveling' (or downward convergence) driven by a sharp deterioration and the stagnation of the alleviating trend among young and middle-aged adults. Notably, social exclusion among older adults remains at a consistently high level, with the pre-pandemic worsening trend persisting. Based on these findings, this study proposes policy measures to mitigate the negative impacts of COVID-19 on social exclusion and to address the structural vulnerability of older adults.