기후변화에 따른 우리나라 수문 기상학적 예측의 불확실성

국문 초록 (Abstract)

기후변화에 따른 기온과 강수량의 변화가 지표수자원에 미치는 영향은 수문기상학 연구에서 매우 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화가 우리나라 5대강 유역의 유출량에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위하여 Catchment Modeling Toolkit의 네 가지 수문기상 모형을 사용하였다. 세 가지 RCP 시나리오에 대하여 12개 GCM 모형으로부터 미래 2021에서 2040까지(2030s), 2051에서 2070까지(2060s) 및 2081에서 2099까지(2090s) 기간에 대한 기후자료를 추출하였다. 이들 자료는 LARS-WG 방법으로 상세화하였으며, 수문기상 모형들은 1999부터 2009까지의 관측자료를 이용하여 보정 및 검정하였다. 본 연구에서 미래의 유출량은 사분위 범위, 전체 범위 및 변동계수 값이 시공간적으로 및 수문기상 모형에 따라서 큰 불확실성을 나타내었다. 종합적으로 볼 때 미래의 유출량은 기준년도에 비하여 RCP2.6, RCP4.5 및 RCP8.5 시나리오에 대하여 10~24%, 7~30% 및 11~30% 증가할 것으로 예상되었다. 본 연구는 수분기상모형과 기후변화 예측의 불확실성을 고려한 미래의 유출량을 모의할 수 있는 방법을 제시하였다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The impact of the combination of changes in temperature and rainfall due to climate change on surface water resources is important in hydro-meteorological research. In this study, 4 hydro-meteorological(HM) models from the Rainfall Runoff Library in the Catchment Modeling Toolkit were used to model the impact of climate change on runoff in streams for 5 river basins in the Republic of Korea. Future projections from 2021 to 2040(2030s), 2051 to 2070(2060s) and 2081 to 2099(2090s), were derived from 12 General Circulation Models(GCMs) and 3 representative concentration pathways(RCPs). GCM outputs were statistically adjusted and downscaled using Long-Ashton Research Station Weather Generator(LARS-WG) and the HM models were well calibrated and verified for the period from 1999 to 2009. The study showed that there is substantial spatial, temporal and HM uncertainty in the future runoff shown by the interquartile range, range and coefficient of variation. In summary, the aggregated runoff will increase in the future by 10~24%, 7~30% and 11~30% of the respective baseline runoff for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This study presents a method to model future stream-flow taking into account the HM model and climate based uncertainty.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 손경환, "미래 기후·수문 정보에 따른 국내 가뭄의 전망 및 분석" 한국수자원학회 47 (47): 71-82, 2014

2 김초롱, "기후변화 시나리오를 활용한 미래 한반도 물수급 전망" 한국수자원학회 46 (46): 807-819, 2013

3 Zhang, X. -C., "Trend and uncertainty analysis of simulated change impacts with multiple GCMs and emission scenarios" 151 : 1297-1304, 2011

4 Van Vuuren, D. P, "The representative concentration pathways: an overview" 109 : 5-31, 2011

5 Moss, R. H., "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment" 463 (463): 747-756, 2010

6 Nkomozepi, T., "The effects of climate change on the water resources of the Geumho River Basin, Republic of Korea" 1-9, 2014

7 Boughton, W, "The Australian water balance model" 19 (19): 943-956, 2004

8 정현교, "SWAT을 이용한 기후변화가 충주댐 및 조정지댐저수량에 미치는 영향 평가" 한국수자원학회 46 (46): 1235-1247, 2013

9 Kling, H., "Runoff conditions in the upper Danube basin under an ensemble of climate change scenarios" 424-425 : 264-277, 2012

10 Podger, G., "RRL Rainfall Runoff Library users guide"

11 Chung, S. O, "Projecting future paddy irrigation demands in Korea" 62 : 297-305, 2013

12 Bae, D. H., "Long term trend of rainfall and runoff in Korean river basins" 22 (22): 2644-2656, 2008

13 Chen, H., "Impacts of climate change on the Qingjiang Watershed’s runoff change trend in China" 26 : 847-858, 2012

14 Kim, J., "Impacts of changes in climate and land use/land cover under IPCC RCP scenarios on streamflow in the Hoeya River Basin, Korea" 452 : 181-195, 2013

15 Bae, D. H., "Hydrologic uncertainties in climate change from IPCC AR4 GCM simulations of the Chungju Basin, Korea" 401 (401): 90-105, 2011

16 Chiew, F. H. S., "Estimation of SIMHYD parameter values for application in ungauged catchments" 2883-2889, 2005

17 Lupia, F., "ETo-PM version 0.9. Available on the internet"

18 Schreider, S. Y., "Detecting changes in streamflow response to changes in non- climatic catchment conditions: farm dam development in the Murray-Darling basin, Australia" 262 (262): 84-98, 2002

19 Vaze, J., "Conceptual rainfall-runoff model performance with different spatial rainfall inputs" 12 (12): 1100-1112, 2011

20 Krause, P., "Comparison of different efficiency criteria for hydrological model assessment" 5 (5): 89-97, 2005

21 Kim, Y. O., "Combining rainfall-runoff model outputs for improving ensemble streamflow prediction" 11 (11): 578-588, 2006

22 Rivarola Sosa, J. M., "Climate change impact on the hydrological balance of the Itaipu Basin" 18 (18): 163-170, 2011

23 Eum, H. I., "Climate change impact assessment using k-nearest neighbor weather generator: case study of the Nakdong River basin in Korea" 15 (15): 772-785, 2010

24 Nester, T., "Climate and catchment controls on the performance of regional flood simulations" 402 (402): 340-356, 2011

25 Gardner, L. R, "Assessing the effect of climate change on mean annual runoff" 379 : 351-359, 2009

26 Lee, S. J., "Analysis of runoff in the Han River basin by SSARR model considering agricultural water" 10 (10): 265-280, 2012

27 Velázquez, J. A., "An ensemble approach to assess hydrological models' contribution to uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources" 17 : 565-578, 2013

28 Shi, C., "A study on the annual runoff change and its relationship with water and soil conservation practices and climate change in the middle Yellow River basin" 100 : 31-41, 2013

29 Burnash, R. J. C., "A Generalized Streamflow Simulation System-Conceptual Modelling for Digital Computers" US Department of Commerce, National Weather Service and State of California, Department of Water Resources 1973

30 Oh, B. -H., "2012 Modularization of Korea’s Development Experience: Korea’s River Basin Management Policy" Ministry of Strategy and Finance, Sejong, Republic of Korea 88-, 2013