Unlocking the secrets of Wall street : a noted expert guides you through today's financial markets

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CONTENTS
• Prologue = 15
• Understanding Truth : Translating Mumbo Jumbo into English = 5
• Part One : Forecasting Theory, Practice, and Malpractice = 16
• Part Two : Political and Economic Theory, Practice, and Malpractice = 17
• Part Three : Interest Rate Theory, Practice, and Malpractice = 18
• Part Four : Monetary-Fiscal Theory, Practice, and Malpractice = 19
• Part Five : Stock Market Theory, Practice, and Malpractice = 19
• Part Six : Corporate Financial Theory, Practice, and Malpractice = 20
• Modern Portfolio Theory : First Cousin to MM Theory = 22
• Part Seven : International Financial Theory. Practice and Malpractice = 23
• Part Eight : The Nature of Economic Man ： Theory, Practice, and Malpractice = 24
• Preface : A Walk Down Wall Street = 25
• A Double Plague on Wall Street : Self-Deception and Preaching = 26
• The Theoretical Picks and Shovels = 28
• Dedication and Acknowledgments = 28
• PART ONE : FORECASTING THEORY, PRACTICE, AND MALPRACTICE = 31
• 1. Baptism of Fire : duPont, Glore Forgan & Company = 33
• Recession Signals = 36
• Misleading Signals : The Coincident Indicators = 38
• Rear-view-Mirror Indicators = 39
• Wailing and Screaming at Francis I. duPont = 41
• At the Circus with Drs. Galbraith and Rinfret = 42
• Exhibit 1-1 : Cyclical Indicators = 45
• Exhibit 1-2 : Business Cycle Reference Dates = 46
• 2. Death of the Hairy Mammoth on Wall Street = 49
• The Hairy Mammoth : duPont, Glore Forgan & Company = 50
• The Problem : The Bottoms-Up Approach = 53
• Economic Strikeout at duPont = 54
• From the duPont Fire to the Blyth-Eastman-Dillon Frying Pan = 57
• 3. Mephistopheles on Wall Street : Blyth Eastman Dillon & Company = 59
• Wolves and Serpents = 60
• Dialogue of the Insane = 61
• The Serpents and Wolves of Wall Street = 64
• Trinity Church Versus the Unholy Trinity from Hell = 69
• PART TWO : POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC THEORY, PRACTICE, AND MALPRACTICE = 71
• 4. Night Walkers in Washington, D.C. : Act I-The 1973-75 Maxi-Recession = 73
• Dancing Authorities in the 1973-75 Recession = 74
• Keynes and Marshall on the Classical Triplets = 80
• A Talk with Arthur Burns = 81
• Haywire Monetary and Fiscal Policies = 82
• Exhibit 4-1 : The Lagging Cyclical Indicators = 83
• 5. President Carter, Chairman Volcker, and Haywire Monetary Economics = 84
• Act Ⅱ : The 1980 Recession and Boom = 87
• The Downhill Run = 90
• The Dancing Federal Reserve = 92
• Exhibit 5-1 : Monetary Aggregates and Related Measures = 94
• 6. President Reagan, Chairman Volcker, and Haywire Fiscal Economics = 95
• Act Ⅲ : Reaganomics and the Mini-Depression of 1981-82 = 95
• Dr. Death, Dr. Doom, and Dr. Gloom = 99
• The Crowding-Out Impact on Capital Spending = 100
• The Monetarist Triplets = 101
• The Bond Bears on Reaganomics = 104
• "Deficitphobia," Ideological Rage, and Interest Rates = 105
• Exhibit 6-1 : Nonmonetized Tax Cuts and Nonmonetized Spending ： A Money Shuffle = 108
• Exhibit 6-2 : Federal Government Deficits and Interest Rates = 109
• PART THREE : INTEREST RATE THEORY, PRACTICE, AND MALPRACTICE = 111
• 7. Sense and Nonsense Theory on the Value of the Dollar 113
• Economic Arithmetic Versus Economic Theory = 114
• Ex Post Identities Versus Ex Ante Demand and Supply = 115
• Price Theory in Historical Perspective = 122
• The Beneficial Legacy of Irving Fisher = 123
• A Postscript on the Mumbo Jumbo of k and $${1 \over v}$$ = 123
• Exhibit 7-1 : The Income Velocity of Money = 126
• Exhibit 7-2 : Demand Deposit Turnover = 127
• Exhibit 7-3 : Inflation and War = 128
• 8. The Fixed-Income Markets : Confusing Arithmetic with Analysis = 129
• The Mighty Power of Interest : From Acorns to Giant Oak Trees = 131
• Confusing Arithmetical Identities with Interest-Rate Theory = 136
• Fixed-Income Parrots and Pros : A WOR Radio Review = 139
• 9. Parrot Talk on Interest Rates and the Money and Capital Markets = 142
• Argument by Definition : Confusing Arithmetic with Theory 143
• The "Pure" Rate Component of the Interest Rate = 144
• Elasticity of Demand : A Snapshot with Everything Frozen = 146
• The "Yield Spread" Approach to Interest-Rate Forecasting = 149
• Exhibit 9-1 : Short-Term and Long-Term Interest Rates = 155
• 10. Anatomy of Interest Rates : Huckster Hash on Wealth without Risk = 156
• Deflating Both Principal and Interest = 158
• Real Rates : The Lesson from the 1930s = 161
• Nonsense Teaching in Academe = 162
• Liquidity Versus Volatility and Risk of Loss = 163
• Theory, Practice, and Malpractice : Mongrel DOGS Versus CATS = 166
• Fixed-Income Mathematics and a Theory for Spotting Hucksters = 167
• The Quintessential Huckster, Pro, Parrot? = 169
• Exhibit 10-1 : A Technical Note on Duration = 171
• PART FOUR : MONETARY AND FISCAL THEORY, PRACTICE, AND MALPRACTICE = 175
• 11. The Renegade "Monetarists" : Their Problems with Monetary Theory = 177
• From Praise to Caustic Critique = 180
• Nominal M1 : The First Icon = 180
• Friedman and Rinfret at the Circus = 189
• Exhibit 11-1 : The Circuit Velocity of Money = 190
• 12. Gold Bugs, Monetary Cranks, and Assorted Pecuniary Nuts = 191
• Headline News : Gold Bug Knocks Out Wall Street Economist = 192
• Gold and the Daughters of the American Revolution (DAR) = 197
• Fisher and Smith Incorporated : Pesticide for Gold Bugs = 198
• Exhibit 12-1 : Gold Prices 1989-1991 = 199
• 13. Fundamental Fiscal Theory : An Antidote to Fallacy and Folly = 200
• Actual Versus "Full-Employment" or "Standardized" Deficits = 208
• A Constitutional Amendment on the Budget? = 209
• Nationally Recognized Personalities : Buckley, Batra, and Perot = 210
• 14. Taxes and the Budget : The Triumph of Self-Deception Over Scientific Method = 215
• Tax Impact Versus Tax Incidence = 215
• Deliberate Deception Versus Self-Deception = 216
• A Preface to Untangling the Alleged Double Tax = 219
• Tax Policy According to Dr. Martin Feldstein = 221
• The Theory of Tax Incidence : International Aspects = 222
• A Postscript on Ideological Dancing = 223
• Double Talk on Double Taxation = 224
• PART FIVE : STOCK MARKET THEORY, PRACTICE, AND MALPRACTICE = 225
• 15. Stock Valuation Tools : Forecasting Black Monday = 227
• Translating Stock Market Mumbo Jumbo into Plain English = 228
• Confusing Investment with Reinvestment = 230
• The Required Return on Stocks : k = 231
• The Equity Premium = 231
• The Confusion Over "Cost of Capital" = 233
• The Fundamental (Equilibrium) Value Versus Market Price = 234
• Applying Value Theory to the Standard & Poor's 500 = 235
• The Gordon Stock-Dividend-Capital Appreciation Model = 237
• Dividends Versus Earnings : A Reconciliation = 238
• A Reconciliation of Common Sense with Esoteric Formulas = 240
• Black Monday Strikeout = 241
• Postscript : Worried Stock Bulls and Bubble Stocks in 1997-98 = 242
• Exhibit 15-1 : Interest Rates and Bond Yields = 243
• Exhibit 15-2 : Standard & Poor's Price／Earnings Ratio = 244
• Exhibit 15-3 : Stock Valuation (October 6, 1987) Before Black Monday = 245
• Exhibit 15-4 : The Arithmetic of the Modigliani-Miller (MM) Dividend Irrelevancy Theorem = 247
• 16. Monday Morning Quarterbacks on Black Monday = 250
• Gamblers on Black Monday = 251
• The Institutional Herd : Spotted Over the Telephone = 252
• The Mandate of Insecurity : Perform or Perish = 254
• From the Wall of Wonder to the Wall of Worry = 254
• The Monday Morning Quarterbacks = 255
• Liquidity and the Fallacy of Composition = 256
• 17. The Tokyo Stock Megabubble : The Role of Delusion and Deception = 257
• Back to Stock Valuation Fundamentals and the Data = 260
• The Nikkei 225 and the Indianapolis Speedway = 261
• The Dubious Practice of "Shaving" Reported P／E Levels = 263
• High Deception : Separating Growth (g) and Required Return (k) = 265
• Trash and Litter on the Tokyo Stock Market = 266
• A Compliment to an Accountant, A Stab to My Fellow Economists = 269
• Bubbles, Alligators, and Celestial P／E Levels = 270
• Bubbles and Ostriches = 271
• Postscript : Japan's Economic Paralysis in 1997-98 = 272
• Exhibit 17-1 : Long-Term Government Bond Yields = 273
• PART SIX : CORPORATE FINANCIAL THEORY, PRACTICE, AND MALPRACTICE = 275
• 18. Valuation Muddles : A Preface to Bad Theory in Corporate Finance = 277
• Valuation Analysis : Short-Run Sense Versus Long-Run Error = 278
• Valuation : The Long Run Versus the Short Run = 284
• Parrots and the Market-Period Analysis = 288
• 19. Theory of Corporate Finance : The Antidote for Junk Bond Deception = 290
• The Bright Side of Leverage = 293
• The Dark Side of Leverage = 294
• The Average Weighted Cost of Capital (AWCC) = 297
• Market Costs Versus Market Proportions = 298
• MM Arbitrage "Proof" = 302
• Exhibit 19-1 : The Nature of the Borrowing Advantage = 303
• 20. Flawed "MM" Corporate Valuation Theory = 305
• MM Theory Versus Rational "Economic Man" = 306
• The Strange "MM" Views on the Corporate Cost of Capital = 307
• The Meaning of Market "Weights" = 311
• Expectations : An Essential Key to Traditional Theory = 313
• The Fatal Flaw in the MM Arbitrage "Proof" = 314
• Clowns Emulating Clowns in Alice-in-Wonderland Finance = 314
• 21. Junk Bond Hawkers and the Cash-Flow Scavengers = 316
• Junk Bond Hawkers Visit Pace University = 317
• The Interest Pac-Man = 320
• Megaleveraging Versus Traditional Theory = 321
• Government Support for Junk = 322
• The Cash-Flow Scavenger = 322
• Flawed Theory of Risk in MM and Related Academic Models = 326
• Exhibit 21-1 : Net Corporate Debt and Equity Financing = 328
• PART SEVEN : INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL THEORY, PRACTICE, AND MALPRACTICE = 329
• 22. Parrot and Pro Chatter on International Finance and Investment = 331
• Current Account Deficit Equals Capital Inflow on "Ex Post" Basis = 333
• Recycling Dollars = 336
• Ex Ante Purchases and Sales of Dollars by Foreigners = 339
• The Quintessential Parrot at General Motors = 340
• Exhibit 22-1 : The Esoteric "J-Curve" Effect on Trade = 343
• 23. The All-American Protectionists : Delusion Wrapped in Deception = 345
• The Ricardian Principle of Comparative Advantage = 346
• Double-Talk Protectionist Pitches = 348
• Protectionist Parrots or Pros? = 354
• The Question of a Level Playing Field = 357
• Ideological Screaming on the Nature of Economic Man? = 358
• PART EIGHT : THE NATURE OF ECONOMIC MAN-THEORY, PRACTICE, AND MALPRACTICE = 359
• 24. Economists as Preachers = 361
• The Smithian Masterswitch = 362
• Smithian Microeconomics and Macroeconomics = 364
• The Free-Market Marginal Productivity Theorist = 367
• The Free-Market Comparative Disutility Theorist = 367
• The Free-Market Total Factor Productivity Theorist = 368
• The Marxist Labor-Value Theorist = 369
• Scientists (and John and Jane Doe) Versus Warring Economists = 370
• 25. Scientists on Economic Man : Their Disdain for Economic Preachers = 372
• Mathematicians and "Chaos" Theorists on Economic Man = 373
• A Test for Identifying Chaos = 374
• Chaos on Wall Street? = 375
• Butterflies : A Link to Nobel Prize Winners? = 376
• Psychologists on Economic Man = 376
• The Abuse of Positive Versus Normative Economics = 377
• Novelists and Song Writers on Economic Man = 380
• Exhibit 25-1 : Random Versus Chaotic Series = 383
• 26. The Nature of Economic Man = 384
• Evidence from Competing Social and Physical Sciences = 387
• The Evidence Bearing on Man's Future = 388
• A Postscript on the Pro = 392
• Epilogue : Entering the Third Millenium ： Global Economic Shocks in a Electronically Bonded World = 395
• (1) A Policy-led Third Technological Revolution? = 396
• (2) Economic Collapse in Japan and Southeast Asia? = 399
• (3) A Bursting of the Bubble U.S. Stock Market? = 404
• (4) A Self-Destructing European Economic Community? = 406
• Exhibit E-l : The Evidence of a U.S. Stock Market Bubble = 409
• Appendix A : The Danger of Consensus Forecasting ： 1970-98 = 413
• Appendix B : In Recession ： Seven Financial Fallacies of Four Bond Bears = 439
• Appendix C : Two Deflationary Shocks ： Oil Plus Monetary Overkill? = 440
• Appendix D : Stock Valuation Models Flash Red, Red = 441
• Appendix E : Sell King Dollar = 443
• Appendix F : Buy King Dollar = 445
• Appendix G : Consensus Misreading of Yield Curves = 446
• Appendix H : Historical Perspective on Bubbles = 448
• Appendix I : A Short Primer on Derivatives = 451
• Appendix J : Capital and Durables Gluts to End Productivity-led Profits Boom = 459
• Glossary = 461
• Bibliography = 475
• Index = 481