성립될 가능성이 가장 많은 가격에 대한 개념적 논의와 시뮬레이션기법에 의한 시장가치 추계 = Conceptual Reviews on the Most Probable Price and Market Value Estimations Using the Monte Carlo Simulation Technique

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Recently the legal concept of `justified value` was changed: Justified value is the most probable price of the subject land in the ordinary market under all conditions requisite to normal trade. The application of Monte Carlo simulation technique to estimate real estate value has remained the exclusive province of real estate appraisers. This study is the first attempt to estimate the most probable price of hypothetical office building using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. Three distributional patterns were assumed for the economic characteristics of similar properties such as potential gross income, vacancy and bad debt, operating expense ratio, capitalization rate: that is uniform distribution, normal distribution and observed actual distribution. EXCEL program calculated the most probable price estimates based 100 iterations, 1,000 iterations, and 10,000 iterations for each three distributional patterns. Because the value indicated by 10,000 iterations of observed actual distributional pattern is more reliable than the indications derived from the other iterations of other patterns, the final estimate of the most probable price would be 29,585 million Wons.