A Comprehensive Study on African Swine Fever (ASF): Epidemiology, Climate Change Impact and Control Measures

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Veterinary epidemiology is the science of studying patterns of health and viruses in different groups and populations and the fundamental of veterinary medicine for preventing the spread of animal diseases to humans as well as the prevention, control, diagnosis, and treatment of diseases impacting the health of domestic and wild animals. This essay explores the epidemiological dynamics of African swine Fever (ASF). The ASF Virus (ASFV) is a large and complex DNA virus that directly harms the pig family. The ASFV genome is circular and approximately 170-194 kb in size, encoding over 170 different genes. African Swine Fever (ASF) is a highly contagious and often deadly disease affecting domestic and wild pigs. It was first reported in Africa in the 1920s and has since spread to many countries in Europe, Asia, and the Americas. The main mode of transmission of ASF is through direct contact between infected and healthy pigs or through indirect contact via contaminated feed, clothing, vehicles, or other fomites. The virus can also persist in the environment for long periods of time, making it difficult to control its spread. The impact of ASF on the pork industry can be significant, as outbreaks result in large-scale culling of infected pigs and the imposition of trade restrictions, leading to market instability and economic losses. Efforts to control the spread of ASF include measures such as vaccination, improved biosecurity, and strict control of pig movements. However, a vaccine is not yet commercially available, and the disease remains a significant threat to the global pork industry.
Pathologically, ASFV infection results in a range of symptoms, including fever, lethargy, anorexia, and haemorrhagic lesions in various tissues, including the skin, spleen, liver, and lymph nodes. In severe cases, the virus can cause multi-organ failure and death, often within a matter of days. The pathological expression of ASFV is determined by the interaction between the virus and the host and by the genetic variation among ASFV strains. The severe and often deadly outcome of ASFV infection highlights the need for continued research into the virus and its interactions with the host, with the ultimate goal of developing effective strategies for controlling the spread of ASF. To assist the control management, this study focuses on producing informative data on ASF epidemiology.
This study conducted a comprehensive examination of the African swine fever (ASF) issue using various methods. Firstly, bibliometric analysis for scientific content about ASF using Web of Science database. Secondly, Climate change is current global issues, the impact of climate change on the future spread of ASF was analyzed using WorldClim bioclimatic variables and Representative Concentrative Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 for current, 2050, and 2070, with the presence data of global ASF outbreaks in wild boar locations between 1st January 2019 to 29th July 2022 and the maximum entropy (Maxent) model. A quantitative risk analysis was performed by introducing the global reproduction rate of the disease using the doubling time approach and global ASF outbreak data in wild boar from the Empres-i data portal. The study also investigated the spatial growth of ASF in South Korea as an example case, using the minimum convex polygon (MCP) approach for quarantine measures and finally, a mental model was developed using a system dynamic approach based on literatures and our knowledge to understand the causal relationships involved in the spread of ASF.
From bibliometric study, we found that increasing the outbreak of ASF, researchers are working to develop new methods for controlling and preventing the spread of ASF, including developing vaccines, improving biosecurity measures, and minimizing its impact on the pork industry and global food supply and high indexed publications are also increasing. Based on the Web of science categories, it was noticed that most of ASF-related research were on Veterinary Sciences followed by Virology and Infectious disease. China followed by USA, Spain and England were the highly dominated countries contributing Web of Science (WoS) indexed research. Elsevier followed by MDPI, Wiley and Springer Nature were major publishers of ASF-related papers. ‘African swine fever’, ‘African swine fever virus’, ‘domestic pigs’, ‘epidemiology’ and ‘pigs’ were the highly adopted keywords in the previous research and different dominated keywords were identified in each cluster of bibliometric keyword network.
We also found climate change is contributing to the spread of ASFV. Among the bioclimatic variables, the driest month (Bio14) and annual mean temperature (Bio1) are major influencing factors. Based on the bioclimatic variables and RCP scenarios, future climate is identified favorable to ASF spread. Based on the global scenario, ASFV spread in wild boar above the threshold line (R0≥1). The recent growth trend (R0=5.87 @ infectious period 3.5 days) flagging the very high risk to wild boar and pig farm. Strict biosecurity measures, movement control, monitoring of pigs, widespread culling of infected pigs, quarantine measures, and OIE protocol are recommended.
ASF has spread rapidly from Africa to several other continents, including Europe, Asia, and Americas. Based on the 37, 778 outbreaks reported in Empres-i, the highest record were identified in Poland (30.21 %) followed by Romania (19.11 %) and Latvia (10.16%). In South Korea, the ASF was observed increasing with linear rate 2.36 per day (R2:0.98) examined form the outbreaks in wild boar data recorded between September 17th, 2019, to May 20th, 2022. The weekly and monthly spatial growth through MCP was found to increase with logistic growth rates 0.022 km2 per week and 0.094 km2 per month, respectively. A mental model on spreading of ASF has been developed. A total of twenty-three variables were used to visualize the dynamics of disease spread and active veterinary services with awareness program and R&D support were highlighted as major variables to control the spread. The model will help to understand how changes in one part of the system can affect other parts and identify potential leverage points for intervention or improvement.
The current study about the spatial growth of African Swine Fever (ASF) and the related literature have important implications for controlling the spread of the disease. Effective control of ASF is essential for maintaining the health and welfare of wild/domestic pigs, ensuring the availability of pork products, and avoiding economic losses due to disease outbreaks. Understanding the patterns of ASF spread is crucial for developing effective control measures, such as implementing biosecurity protocols, establishing surveillance systems, and restricting disease vectors such as boar, pig and tick movements. The study of ASF spatial growth can also help identify high-risk areas for disease outbreaks and inform targeted interventions. Furthermore, literature on ASF can provide insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying the disease, the epidemiology of ASFV, and the development of effective vaccines and treatments. This knowledge is crucial for advancing our understanding of the virus and developing strategies to control its spread. This study has significant implications for the global pork industry, as well as for public health and food security.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract I
• Acknowledgement VII
• Table of contents IX
• List of Figures X
• List of Tables XII
• List of original publications XIII
• Chapter 1: Background 1
• Chapter 2: Bibliometric study on ASF 7
• Chapter 3: Examining the impact of climate change on ASF spread 21
• Chapter 4: Examination of the global basic reproduction number 33
• Chapter 5: Examination of spatial growth using minimum convex polygon: a case from South Korea 43
• Chapter 6: General discussion and conclusion 57
• References 63

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