광양항 컨테이너 물동량과 선복량의 Granger 인과성 분석 = Granger Causality Analysis between Container Throughput and Shipping Capacity at Gwangyang Port

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study examines Granger causality between container throughput and shipping capacity at Gwangyang Port, using the aggregate gross tonnage (GT) of inbound container ship calls as a capacity proxy. The Johansen cointegration tests found no long-run equilibrium, so a vector autoregression (VAR) was estimated on first-differenced log variables. Granger causality tests indicated that GT leads throughput in the short run, whereas the reverse direction was statistically insignificant. Impulse response functions showed short-lived effects that dissipate within two to three periods. Because exogenous factors—freight rates, macroeconomic conditions, and route—are not accounted for, the findings should be interpreted as short-run Granger predictability rather than structural causality. In practical terms, GT can serve as a leading indicator for short-term forecasting and operations planning at the port level. Future research should enhance the robustness of the results by incorporating nonlinear specifications, explicitly controlling for exogenous drivers, and benchmarking the results across major competing ports.